News Summary
PositiveNVIDIA delivered a massive Q2 beat with $96.2B revenue (up 100%+ YoY) and raised Q3 guidance to $108B with 74% gross margins, while securing a historic $150B buyback authorization and achieving all-time highs near $238. Wall Street consensus remains strongly bullish with 50 of 55 analysts rating Buy/Strong Buy and a $320.71 average price target, but material risks include China export controls (with an ongoing $300M smuggling case), White House regulatory scrutiny of AI sector, and Amazon's reported plan to offload $8B in Nvidia chip capacity to external investors.
Red flags
- •China export controls and chip smuggling enforcement creating ongoing legal/compliance risk
- •White House AI Task Force regulatory scrutiny on Nvidia and Big Tech
- •Amazon offloading $8B of Nvidia chip capacity to external investors—potential signal of oversupply or demand moderation
Funds Reducing / Exiting (5)
| Fund | Manager | Shares Held | ∆ Shares | Position Value | % of Fund | QoQ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point72 | Steve Cohen | 438K | -7,149,722 | $88M | 2.3% | -94% | Existing |
| Whale Rock Capital | Alex Sacerdote | 377K | -663,933 | $75M | 2.3% | -64% | Existing |
| Dragoneer | Marc Stad | 0 | −3.7M | — | 21.7% | -100% | EXITED |
| D1 Capital | Dan Sundheim | 0 | −1.6M | — | 2.4% | -100% | EXITED |
| Third Point | Dan Loeb | 0 | −190K | — | 1.6% | -100% | EXITED |
Shares Held reflects quarter-end positions for partial reductions. Funds that fully exited show 0 shares held. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter. % of Fund is the prior-quarter position size — how much of the book was sold down.
Signal History
| Quarter | Direction | Funds | Score | vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | SHORT | 5 | 6.39 | +15.5% |
| Q1 2026 | LONG | 8 | 11.32 | +9.6% |
Same issuer appearing in consecutive quarters — persistent institutional conviction. Returns are frozen at each archived quarter's last refresh.
Insider Activity
| Name | Title | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teter Timothy S. | EVP, General Counsel and Sec | SELL | 12K | $222.19 | $2.77M | 2026-09-21 | ↗ |
| Teter Timothy S. | EVP, General Counsel and Sec | SELL | 13K | $223.05 | $3.01M | 2026-09-21 | ↗ |
| Teter Timothy S. | EVP, General Counsel and Sec | SELL | 4K | $223.75 | $1.01M | 2026-09-21 | ↗ |
| STEVENS MARK A | — | SELL | 1.4M | $219.72 | $297.94M | 2026-09-18 | ↗ |
| STEVENS MARK A | — | SELL | 10K | $220.42 | $2.20M | 2026-09-18 | ↗ |
| Kress Colette | EVP & Chief Financial Officer | SELL | 5K | $218.01 | $1.02M | 2026-09-17 | ↗ |
| Kress Colette | EVP & Chief Financial Officer | SELL | 20K | $219.02 | $4.46M | 2026-09-17 | ↗ |
| Kress Colette | EVP & Chief Financial Officer | SELL | 10K | $219.59 | $2.17M | 2026-09-17 | ↗ |
| STEVENS MARK A | — | SELL | 238K | $231.17 | $54.98M | 2026-09-04 | ↗ |
| STEVENS MARK A | — | SELL | 197K | $230.40 | $45.43M | 2026-09-04 | ↗ |
| STEVENS MARK A | — | SELL | 183K | $233.46 | $42.64M | 2026-09-04 | ↗ |
| STEVENS MARK A | — | SELL | 5K | $234.00 | $1.08M | 2026-09-04 | ↗ |
| STEVENS MARK A | — | SELL | 199K | $227.70 | $45.24M | 2026-09-03 | ↗ |
| STEVENS MARK A | — | SELL | 200K | $229.87 | $45.97M | 2026-09-03 | ↗ |
| STEVENS MARK A | — | SELL | 1K | $228.27 | $0.30M | 2026-09-03 | ↗ |
| STEVENS MARK A | — | SELL | 300K | $220.08 | $66.02M | 2026-09-02 | ↗ |
| STEVENS MARK A | — | SELL | 300K | $222.92 | $66.88M | 2026-09-02 | ↗ |
| STEVENS MARK A | — | SELL | 300K | $224.07 | $67.22M | 2026-09-02 | ↗ |
| STEVENS MARK A | — | SELL | 300K | $226.27 | $67.88M | 2026-09-02 | ↗ |
| STEVENS MARK A | — | SELL | 64K | $220.06 | $13.97M | 2026-09-01 | ↗ |
| Teter Timothy S. | EVP, General Counsel and Sec | SELL | 9K | $218.53 | $2.05M | 2026-08-31 | ↗ |
| Teter Timothy S. | EVP, General Counsel and Sec | SELL | 14K | $217.95 | $3.03M | 2026-08-31 | ↗ |
| Teter Timothy S. | EVP, General Counsel and Sec | SELL | 7K | $216.84 | $1.45M | 2026-08-31 | ↗ |
| STEVENS MARK A | — | SELL | 138K | $220.91 | $30.40M | 2026-08-31 | ↗ |
| STEVENS MARK A | — | SELL | 447K | $220.10 | $98.47M | 2026-08-31 | ↗ |
Beneficial Ownership (13D/13G)
| Filer | Form | Shares | % of Class | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | SC 13G | 1777.4M | 7.3% | 2026-04-28 | ↗ |
SC 13D = active intent to influence control (10-day filing deadline after crossing 5%). SC 13G = passive accumulation, no intent to influence control.
Congressional Trading
| Member | Chamber | State | Type | Amount Range | Transaction Date | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John J Mr McGuire | house | VA05 | BUY | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-08-18 | 2026-09-02 | ↗ |
| Sheldon Whitehouse | senate | — | SELL | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-08-13 | 2026-09-02 | ↗ |
| Cory A Booker | senate | — | SELL | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2026-08-11 | 2026-09-09 | ↗ |
| Sheldon Whitehouse | senate | — | SELL | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-08 | ↗ |
| Cleo Fields | house | LA06 | BUY | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-06-26 | 2026-07-16 | ↗ |
| Matthew Robert Van Epps | house | TN07 | SELL | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-06-16 | 2026-06-17 | ↗ |
| Alan Armstrong | senate | — | BUY | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-03-30 | 2026-07-21 | ↗ |
| Alan Armstrong | senate | — | BUY | $50,001 - $100,000 | 2026-03-27 | 2026-07-21 | ↗ |
Periodic Transaction Reports filed under the STOCK Act. Amounts are disclosed as ranges, not exact dollar figures.