News Summary
NegativeMeta reported a significant Q2 2026 earnings miss (EPS of $6.18 vs. $7.22 estimate) with soft forward guidance, user growth shortfall, and sharply elevated capex forecast ($130-145B) that drove free cash flow down 91% YoY, resulting in a 9% stock premarket drop and multiple analyst downgrades. The disappointing results were compounded by regulatory headwinds in the EU (lost antitrust appeal, interim measures imposed) and the departure of a key AI executive, though underlying ad fundamentals remain described as strong.
Red flags
- •EPS miss of ~14% ($6.18 vs. $7.22 consensus)
- •Q3 revenue guidance below consensus
- •Active users missed estimates (3.6B vs. expectations)
- •Free cash flow collapsed 91% YoY to $784M despite 28% revenue growth
- •Capex raised to $130-145B with unclear ROI and monetization path for AI investments
- •Emily Dalton Smith (key AI executive) departure amid stock volatility
- •EU antitrust appeal lost; interim measures and Statement of Objections issued
- •Multiple analyst downgrades post-earnings; price target cuts across Street
- •Lack of concrete demand signals justifying elevated capex according to analysts
Funds Buying (7)
| Fund | Manager | Shares Held | ∆ Shares | Position Value | % of Fund | QoQ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pershing Square | Bill Ackman | 3.2M | +535K | $1.8B | 9.2% | +20% | Existing |
| Viking Global | Andreas Halvorsen | 1.9M | +805K | $1.1B | 3.0% | +76% | Existing |
| Maverick Capital | Lee Ainslie | 764K | +764K | $430M | 3.9% | — | NEW |
| Appaloosa LP | David Tepper | 675K | +239K | $380M | 5.1% | +55% | Existing |
| Point72 | Steve Cohen | 568K | +568K | $320M | 0.5% | — | NEW |
| D1 Capital | Dan Sundheim | 567K | +567K | $319M | 0.9% | — | NEW |
| Glenview Capital | Larry Robbins | 357K | +234K | $201M | 4.0% | +191% | Existing |
Shares Held and Position Value reflect total quarter-end holdings. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter. % of Fund is the position's share of the fund's reported equity portfolio — it drives the size weighting in the conviction score.
Portfolio Context
Where META ranks in each buying fund's book, and the positions immediately around it. What a holding sits next to often says more about the thesis than the position size does.
position #6 of this fund's book
- 3AIR PRODUCTS AND CHEMICALS I$1,390M
- 4SHERWIN WILLIAMS CO$1,335M
- 5FORTIVE CORP$1,218M
- 6META PLATFORMS INC$1,052M
- 7SCHWAB CHARLES CORP$982M
- 8THERMO FISHER SCIENTIFIC INC$971M
- 9JPMORGAN CHASE & CO$949M
position #7 of this fund's book
- 4ALPHABET INC$654M
- 5UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC$555M
- 6ISHARES INC$490M
- 7META PLATFORMS INC$380M
- 8VISTRA CORP$351M
- 9NVIDIA CORPORATION$305M
- 10NRG ENERGY INC$257M
position #7 of this fund's book
- 4AMAZON COM INC$2,041M
- 5HOWARD HUGHES HOLDINGS INC$1,991M
- 6RESTAURANT BRANDS INTL INC$1,872M
- 7META PLATFORMS INC$1,800M
- 8VISA INC$1,122M
- 9MASTERCARD INCORPORATED$1,091M
- 10S&P GLOBAL INC$1,056M
position #8 of this fund's book
- 5AMAZON COM INC$303M
- 6AGILENT TECHNOLOGIES INC$262M
- 7DANAHER CORP DEL$218M
- 8META PLATFORMS INC$201M
- 9ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC$173M
- 10TEVA PHARMACEUTICAL INDS LTD$172M
- 11VIATRIS INC$157M
position #8 of this fund's book
- 5ALPHABET INC$510M
- 6AMAZON COM INC$482M
- 7NU HLDGS LTD$475M
- 8META PLATFORMS INC$430M
- 9GFL ENVIRONMENTAL INC$375M
- 10NATERA INC$368M
- 11TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFAC$340M
position #17 of this fund's book
- 14SOMNIGROUP INTERNATIONAL INC$390M
- 15FLOWSERVE CORP$368M
- 16APPLOVIN CORP$345M
- 17META PLATFORMS INC$319M
- 18FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC$304M
- 19DISNEY WALT CO$277M
- 20ALPHABET INC$264M
position #30 of this fund's book
- 27BLOCK INC$340M
- 28AMER SPORTS INC$329M
- 29EQUINIX INC$329M
- 30META PLATFORMS INC$320M
- 31AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC$304M
- 32PPL CORP$304M
- 33SEA LTD$290M
Values are quarter-end position sizes. Shown only for funds where META ranks inside their 40 largest equity positions — below that, neighbouring names carry no signal. Adjacency is an inference about a fund's reasoning, not a disclosure of it.
Signal History
| Quarter | Direction | Funds | Score | vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | LONG | 7 | 10.83 | -5.2% |
| Q1 2026 | LONG | 8 | 12.34 | -16.5% |
Same issuer appearing in consecutive quarters — persistent institutional conviction. Returns are frozen at each archived quarter's last refresh.
Insider Activity
| Name | Title | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LI SUSAN J | Chief Financial Officer | SELL | 2K | $689.85 | $1.47M | 2026-08-15 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 149 | $600.00 | $0.09M | 2026-08-10 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 113 | $602.41 | $0.07M | 2026-08-10 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 92 | $604.08 | $0.06M | 2026-08-10 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 40 | $605.97 | $0.02M | 2026-08-10 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 40 | $607.14 | $0.02M | 2026-08-10 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 164 | $600.00 | $0.10M | 2026-08-10 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 114 | $600.00 | $0.07M | 2026-08-10 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 164 | $600.00 | $0.10M | 2026-08-10 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 816 | $600.00 | $0.49M | 2026-08-10 | ↗ |
| Andreessen Marc L | — | SELL | 250 | $588.16 | $0.15M | 2026-08-04 | ↗ |
| Andreessen Marc L | — | SELL | 87 | $589.24 | $0.05M | 2026-08-04 | ↗ |
| Andreessen Marc L | — | SELL | 44 | $590.39 | $0.03M | 2026-08-04 | ↗ |
| Andreessen Marc L | — | SELL | 45 | $591.69 | $0.03M | 2026-08-04 | ↗ |
| KIMMITT ROBERT M | — | SELL | 500 | $561.56 | $0.28M | 2026-08-03 | ↗ |
| Alford Peggy | — | SELL | 464 | $543.56 | $0.25M | 2026-07-31 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 837 | $607.85 | $0.51M | 2026-07-27 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 82 | $607.85 | $0.05M | 2026-07-27 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 57 | $607.85 | $0.03M | 2026-07-27 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 82 | $607.85 | $0.05M | 2026-07-27 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 408 | $607.85 | $0.25M | 2026-07-27 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 837 | $645.85 | $0.54M | 2026-07-20 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 82 | $645.85 | $0.05M | 2026-07-20 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 57 | $645.85 | $0.04M | 2026-07-20 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 82 | $645.85 | $0.05M | 2026-07-20 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 408 | $645.85 | $0.26M | 2026-07-20 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 2K | $660.98 | $1.01M | 2026-07-13 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 82 | $661.13 | $0.05M | 2026-07-13 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 57 | $661.13 | $0.04M | 2026-07-13 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 82 | $661.13 | $0.05M | 2026-07-13 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 408 | $661.13 | $0.27M | 2026-07-13 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 2K | $600.40 | $1.25M | 2026-07-06 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 816 | $601.45 | $0.49M | 2026-07-06 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 376 | $602.63 | $0.23M | 2026-07-06 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 80 | $603.14 | $0.05M | 2026-07-06 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 246 | $600.00 | $0.15M | 2026-07-06 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 171 | $600.00 | $0.10M | 2026-07-06 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 246 | $600.00 | $0.15M | 2026-07-06 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 736 | $600.32 | $0.44M | 2026-07-06 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 314 | $601.44 | $0.19M | 2026-07-06 | ↗ |
| Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 174 | $602.75 | $0.10M | 2026-07-06 | ↗ |
| KIMMITT ROBERT M | — | SELL | 500 | $607.75 | $0.30M | 2026-07-01 | ↗ |
Beneficial Ownership (13D/13G)
| Filer | Form | Shares | % of Class | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FMR LLC | SC 13G/A | 96.2M | 4.4% | 2026-08-06 | ↗ |
| Vanguard Capital Management | SC 13G | 163.8M | 7.5% | 2026-04-30 | ↗ |
SC 13D = active intent to influence control (10-day filing deadline after crossing 5%). SC 13G = passive accumulation, no intent to influence control.
Congressional Trading
| Member | Chamber | State | Type | Amount Range | Transaction Date | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Robert Van Epps | house | TN07 | SELL | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-06-16 | 2026-06-17 | ↗ |
| Daniel Crenshaw | house | TX02 | SELL | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-06-01 | 2026-07-16 | ↗ |
| Daniel Crenshaw | house | TX02 | SELL | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-05-05 | 2026-07-16 | ↗ |
| Daniel Crenshaw | house | TX02 | BUY | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-04-28 | 2026-07-16 | ↗ |
| Alan Armstrong | senate | — | BUY | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2026-03-27 | 2026-07-21 | ↗ |
Periodic Transaction Reports filed under the STOCK Act. Amounts are disclosed as ranges, not exact dollar figures.