ASML

LONG

ASML HLDG NV

Funds

Score

8.50

vs SPY

+6.0%

Stock return (since Q-end)

+22.4%

SPY return (since Q-end)

+16.3%

Current price

$1612.76

News Summary

Negative

ASML delivered a strong Q1 2026 earnings beat with raised full-year guidance to €36-40B, driven by robust AI-related semiconductor demand and customer capacity expansion. However, material headwinds have emerged: China sales collapsed from 36% to 19% of revenues due to export controls, the proposed MATCH Act threatens to ban all DUV sales to China and servicing of existing equipment, TSMC delayed High-NA EUV deployment to 2029, and the company is cutting 1,700 jobs (4% of workforce) amid internal resistance.

Red flags

•China revenue exposure dropped 47% sequentially (36% to 19%) due to regulatory restrictions; MATCH Act could eliminate remaining DUV sales and servicing in China
•TSMC High-NA EUV deployment delayed to 2029, removing near-term demand for highest-margin product segment
•1,700 job cuts (4% workforce) announced with employee walkout (1,000+ staff) on March 24, 2026, signaling organizational stress despite strong sales
•Stock fell 6% post-earnings despite beat and guidance raise, reflecting investor concern about regulatory headwinds outweighing fundamentals
•Ceased disclosure of order numbers historically tracked by investors, reducing transparency on forward demand visibility

Funds Buying (6)

Fund	Manager	Shares Held	∆ Shares	Position Value	QoQ	Status
Lone Pine Capital	Steve Mandel	655K	+50K	$865.3B	+8%	Existing
Point72	Steve Cohen	565K	+565K	$745.9B	—	NEW
Coatue Management	Philippe Laffont	496K	+496K	$655.4B	—	NEW
Third Point	Dan Loeb	12K	+12K	$15.8B	—	NEW
D1 Capital	Dan Sundheim	7K	+7K	$9.0B	—	NEW
Situational Awareness LP	Leopold Aschenbrenner	5K	+5K	$6.1B	—	NEW

Shares Held and Position Value reflect total quarter-end holdings. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter.