News Summary
PositiveASML delivered a strong Q2 2026 earnings beat (€9.3B revenue, 31.3% net margin) and raised full-year guidance for the second time to €43–45B revenue with 54–56% gross margin, driven by sustained AI chip demand and order visibility into 2028. However, new US export controls targeting China sales pose a material regulatory headwind, with China representing ~20% of revenue and the proposed rules specifically naming ASML and pressuring allied governments to restrict advanced chip-making equipment exports.
Red flags
- •US export controls draft specifically names ASML and targets China sales (one-fifth of revenue, primarily DUV systems)
- •Stock dipped on valuation and regulatory risk despite strong results, signaling market concern about China restriction impact
Funds Buying (3)
| Fund | Manager | Shares Held | ∆ Shares | Position Value | % of Fund | QoQ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point72 | Steve Cohen | 555K | +555K | $1.1B | 1.7% | — | NEW |
| Appaloosa LP | David Tepper | 50K | +500 | $99M | 1.3% | +1% | Existing |
| Third Point | Dan Loeb | 30K | +18K | $60M | 1.3% | +150% | Existing |
Shares Held and Position Value reflect total quarter-end holdings. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter. % of Fund is the position's share of the fund's reported equity portfolio — it drives the size weighting in the conviction score.
Portfolio Context
Where ASML ranks in each buying fund's book, and the positions immediately around it. What a holding sits next to often says more about the thesis than the position size does.
position #2 of this fund's book
- 1CREDO TECHNOLOGY GROUP HOLDI$1,673M
- 2ASML HLDG NV$1,103M
- 3AMAZON COM INC$1,061M
- 4MKS INC.$888M
- 5ARISTA NETWORKS INC$873M
position #18 of this fund's book
- 15AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC$136M
- 16ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC$115M
- 17COREWEAVE INC$107M
- 18ASML HLDG NV$99M
- 19BROADCOM INC$57M
- 20QUALCOMM INC$46M
- 21SPACE EXPLORATION TECHN CORP$38M
position #24 of this fund's book
- 21TTM TECHNOLOGIES INC$94M
- 22PERFORMANCE FOOD GROUP CO$75M
- 23ALPHABET INC$66M
- 24ASML HLDG NV$60M
- 25SYSCO CORP$48M
- 26ARES MANAGEMENT CORPORATION$42M
- 27SPACE EXPLORATION TECHN CORP$31M
Values are quarter-end position sizes. Shown only for funds where ASML ranks inside their 40 largest equity positions — below that, neighbouring names carry no signal. Adjacency is an inference about a fund's reasoning, not a disclosure of it.
Signal History
| Quarter | Direction | Funds | Score | vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | LONG | 3 | 3.70 | -14.0% |
| Q1 2026 | LONG | 6 | 7.53 | +20.4% |
Same issuer appearing in consecutive quarters — persistent institutional conviction. Returns are frozen at each archived quarter's last refresh.
Congressional Trading
| Member | Chamber | State | Type | Amount Range | Transaction Date | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | senate | — | BUY | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-03-31 | 2026-07-21 | ↗ |
| Alan Armstrong | senate | — | BUY | $50,001 - $100,000 | 2026-03-30 | 2026-07-21 | ↗ |
| Thomas H Tuberville | senate | — | SELL | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2024-05-03 | 2026-08-05 | ↗ |
Periodic Transaction Reports filed under the STOCK Act. Amounts are disclosed as ranges, not exact dollar figures.