Methodology & Updates
A transparency log of changes to signal logic, data coverage, and features. Signal methodology changes are noted with their rationale and any impact on existing ratings. For how the signals work today, see the Methodology page.
August 15, 2026
Q2 2026 Signals Are Live
All 27 funds filed for the quarter ended June 30, and their holdings are now the site's current view: 101 stocks surfaced for research — 71 in Long Ideas (32 High Conviction, 39 on the Watchlist), 8 in Short Ideas, 6 where funds sit on both sides, and 16 that have already moved — plus 33 options signals. This is the first quarter rollover, so the multi-quarter features built in July activate today: a quarter selector appears at the top, stocks whose signal repeats across quarters carry a ×N streak badge, stock pages gain a Signal History section, and a turnover strip shows how many signals are new, persisted, or dropped versus Q1. Q1 2026 becomes a browsable archive — its prices, news, and insider data are frozen as of today, preserving an honest record of what that quarter looked like rather than quietly restating it.
Affects existing ratings: One caveat specific to Pershing Square. The firm went public in April, and its 13F is now filed by the new parent entity, which reports a wider set of affiliated managers than the old filer did. Two positions on its fund page therefore look like Q2 activity but are not: Howard Hughes shows a +47.7% add, and Pershing Square USA shows as a new position. Both were already held — the Howard Hughes shares were bought in May 2025, and the position has been flat since. Nothing was traded in Q2. No convergence signals are affected, since both are held by only this one fund and a signal requires at least three. The discrepancy resolves itself in Q3, when both quarters will be measured on the same reporting basis.
August 15, 2026
Restored 13D/13G Coverage After a Data Gap
The 13D/13G column flags when any investor — not just a tracked fund — discloses a 5%+ stake in a stock. While preparing the Q2 rollover we identified an issue in how this data was being collected: our data provider changed the way these filings are indexed, and the lookup we relied on stopped matching. Because a stock with no 13D/13G filings is a perfectly normal result, the problem surfaced no error; it simply looked like quiet quarters. We have rebuilt the lookup on a different identifier and refilled the data for Q2 2026 — 794 filings across 99 of the signal stocks, with 9 now flagged for activist 13D filings. The collection also now raises an alert if it ever again finds nothing across every stock at once, rather than reporting an empty result as fact.
Affects existing ratings: The 13D/13G flag has not been backfilled to the Q1 2026 archive, which remains as originally collected.
August 3, 2026
Fund Universe Change: Situational Awareness Out, Whale Rock In
Situational Awareness LP was margin-called in late July and sold its entire public equity portfolio to Citadel; the firm continues as a private vehicle. Because its next 13F will report positions as of June 30 — a portfolio liquidated weeks later — we've excluded it from the convergence signals rather than generate ideas from a book that no longer exists. Whale Rock Capital (Alex Sacerdote) takes its place, keeping the universe at 27 funds, and its prior-quarter holdings have been backfilled so quarter-over-quarter comparisons stay valid. Separately, the Funds page now has two tiers: firms whose 13F we ingest for signals, and firms we track only for their 13D/13G filings on the Activity page. Citadel joins as filing-tracked — their 13D/13G filings are genuinely informative, but their 13F spans over 8,000 equity positions of largely market-making inventory, which would dilute a signal built on several independent managers agreeing. Situational Awareness stays filing-tracked too, so any disclosure unwinding its remaining stakes will appear on the Activity feed.
Affects existing ratings: Q1 2026 signals are unchanged — Situational Awareness's contributions to that quarter remain, and its archived fund page still shows the full book. The change takes effect with Q2 2026 signals.
July 17, 2026
Universal Stock Pages, Since-Filing Returns & Research Links
Three additions rounding out the activist feed. (1) Stock detail pages now exist for any stock a tracked fund has filed 13D/G on — not just those with a quarterly convergence signal. These pages show the fund filings (with share changes and returns), insider activity, congressional trades, short interest, and news; sections that require a convergence signal are simply omitted. Every issuer on the Activity page now links through. (2) Activity rows show price movement since the filing date, relative to SPY — the filing date is a knowable anchor, unlike the quarterly signals where buying could have happened any time during the quarter (those remain measured from quarter-end). Returns are computed daily for filings from the last 90 days; older filings show no return, since a months-old move mostly measures the market rather than the filing. (3) Stock pages now include quick research links to Finviz and Perplexity Finance for company profiles, charts, and fundamentals beyond what this site covers.
July 17, 2026
Activist Activity Feed
A new Activity page shows every Schedule 13D/13G filed by the tracked funds in one chronological feed, newest first — a stock-discovery surface built on the freshest disclosure the SEC requires. Each row carries the same corroborating signals as the main list: insider activity, congressional trades, short interest, and news sentiment (coverage extends to any stock with a fund filing in the last 90 days, not just the quarterly signal universe). Filings also now show the change in shares versus the fund's previous filing on the same issuer — amendment chains are the real story (a fund crossing 5%, trimming below, then adding back is a narrative no single filing shows). The share-change column appears on fund pages too. Every row links to the original filing on EDGAR.
July 14, 2026
Fund Activist Filing Tracker
Fund pages now show each fund's own Schedule 13D/13G filings — the between-quarters view of what these managers are actually doing. Quarterly 13F holdings arrive up to 45 days after quarter-end, but a 5%+ position change must be disclosed within days, on any stock (not just those in our signal universe). Example: Jana Partners' new 13D on Alkami Technology filed June 29 appears here months before any 13F will reflect it. Each filing links to the original document on EDGAR. Refreshed daily. Coverage note: filings are matched by each fund's primary SEC identity; a fund that files through differently-registered affiliates may be under-represented.
July 14, 2026
Multi-Quarter Browsing
The site now supports multiple quarters of 13F data ahead of the Q2 2026 filings (due August 14). A quarter selector appears near the top once more than one quarter is available, defaulting to the most recent. Older quarters become browsable archives: their prices, insider data, and news are frozen at the moment the next quarter arrives (marked with an archive banner), preserving an honest historical record of what each quarter's signals looked like. Cross-quarter persistence also ships today: stocks whose signal repeats in consecutive quarters get a ×N streak badge, and stock detail pages gain a Signal History section showing each quarter's fund count, conviction score, and outcome. A quarter-over-quarter turnover strip also appears at the top of the Stocks tab from the first rollover onward — how many signals are new this quarter, how many persisted, and how many dropped. All of these features activate automatically when Q2 data lands — until then the site looks unchanged.
July 13, 2026
Source Links, Fund Pages & Methodology
Three additions focused on transparency and research depth. (1) Every filing-derived row now links to its primary source: insider trades link to the Form 4 on SEC EDGAR, beneficial ownership rows to the 13D/13G filing index, and congressional trades to the original House PTR PDF or Senate eFD record (the Senate's site requires accepting their access agreement first). (2) Each fund now has its own page — click any fund name to see its full quarter: new positions, adds, reductions and exits, top holdings, and each position's share of the fund's book, with a link to the fund's 13F filings on EDGAR. (3) A permanent Methodology page documents the full signal pipeline — the convergence threshold, the size-weighted conviction score, the price filter, and every corroborating data source with its refresh cadence. The nav now has separate Methodology and Updates links (this page is Updates).
July 13, 2026
Size-Weighted Conviction Scoring & Signal Corrections
Four related changes to signal quality. (1) Conviction scores now weight each fund's buy by its position size relative to the fund's equity portfolio — a 3%+ position counts up to 3× more than a tiny sliver. The prior formula scored a 4% concentrated bet identically to a 0.03% platform position, producing an 85-way tie at score 4.50; scores now spread meaningfully. Exits (short signals) are weighted by the prior-quarter position size — dumping a large position is a louder signal than trimming dust. Stock detail pages show each fund's % of Fund. (2) Long Ideas is now tiered: the main table shows High Conviction signals (score ≥ 4.0); lower-scoring names move to a collapsible Watchlist. (3) Share classes of the same company are merged into one signal (Alphabet's GOOG/GOOGL previously appeared in two sections simultaneously; Zillow's Z/ZG were double-counted) — a fund holding both classes counts once. (4) ETFs (SPY, GLD, KWEB, IWM, SMH) are excluded from equity signals entirely — funds hold them for beta and hedging, not stock selection. Separately, a recomputation against complete prior-quarter data removed 87 long signals that were artifacts of the original May run: incomplete Q4 data made reduced or unchanged positions look like new buys. Long Ideas is smaller and more honest. The ↩ re-entry badge now appears only for stocks that re-entered range within the last two weeks (it previously persisted forever and had spread to ~90% of rows). On Short Ideas, a small ✓ marks rising short interest, which corroborates the exit thesis.
Affects existing ratings: Signal counts change materially: Long Ideas 107 → ~50 (25 High Conviction + Watchlist), driven mostly by the removal of the 87 stale signals — among them CRH, DIS, SHW, FLR, MTZ, which showed 5 'buying' funds when the underlying filings show those funds actually reduced. All conviction scores are on the new size-weighted scale and are not comparable to previous values.
July 13, 2026
Data Quality Fixes
Three fixes from an internal audit. (1) Position values on stock detail pages were overstated 1000× for most funds: the SEC now requires 13F values to be reported in whole dollars, but our pipeline assumed the older thousands convention for filings that didn't clearly signal otherwise — a $132M position could display as $132B. All stored values have been corrected, and the detection logic fixed going forward. Signals and conviction scores were never affected (they are computed from share counts, not dollar values). (2) The insider activity column was intermittently blank on weekday evenings: the daily insider refresh cleared the data table for the full ~45-minute duration of its run, and page caching could extend the gap for hours. The refresh now swaps each stock's data in place, eliminating the window. (3) Short interest data is now checked daily instead of weekly, so each biweekly FINRA publication appears within a day of release rather than up to five days later.
June 21, 2026
Short Interest Signal Added
Added a fifth corroborating signal: FINRA's free, biweekly consolidated short interest data, covering every exchange-listed US equity. Unlike the other signals (which are discrete filings or events), this is a market-positioning metric — days-to-cover and the period-over-period change in shares short. A Short Int. column now appears on all signal tables, and the stock detail page shows a stat card with the latest reading. The color coding reflects the direction of change only (more shares short vs. fewer), not whether it's bullish or bearish for a given idea — rising short interest alongside hedge funds buying suggests a building squeeze, while rising short interest alongside hedge funds selling corroborates the short thesis; interpretation is left to the reader. Refreshed weekly (data itself only updates roughly twice a month).
June 21, 2026
Congressional Trading Signal Added
Added House and Senate members' stock trades, sourced directly from each chamber's official STOCK Act disclosure system (not a third-party aggregator). Unlike insider trades and beneficial ownership — which we only track for stocks already in our hedge-fund-driven universe — congressional trading data is stored broadly across all reported tickers, since a member's trading activity is informative regardless of whether a hedge fund has also taken a position. Signal tables show green/red BUY/SELL count badges per ticker, and the stock detail page lists each disclosed transaction (amounts are reported as ranges, not exact dollar figures, per STOCK Act requirements). Refreshed weekly.
June 21, 2026
Beneficial Ownership (13D/13G) Signal Added
Added SEC Schedule 13D and 13G filings — required when any filer (institution, activist, or individual) crosses 5% beneficial ownership in a stock, independent of our tracked hedge fund universe. Schedule 13D signals active intent to influence control and is the higher-conviction case; Schedule 13G is passive accumulation (often index or quant funds) and is shown for context but doesn't trigger a badge. A purple 13D badge appears next to the ticker on signal tables when an active 13D filing exists, and the stock detail page lists all 13D/13G filings for that name. Shortly after launch we corrected a display issue where a single filing listing multiple entities in the same ownership chain (e.g. a fund, its management company, and the individual managing it) appeared as separate duplicate rows — the detail page now shows one row per filing.
May 22, 2026
Mixed Signals Section
Added a new Mixed Signals section for stocks where 3+ funds are buying and 3+ funds are reducing or exiting — divergent conviction within the tracked universe. These stocks previously appeared in both Long and Short sections simultaneously, which was misleading. They are now moved out of the individual directional sections and shown together under Mixed Signals, positioned between Long Ideas — Already Moved and Short Ideas. The section replaces the combined conviction score with a Buyers / Sellers split column showing fund counts and conviction scores per side. Stock detail pages for mixed stocks now display both a Funds Buying table and a Funds Reducing / Exiting table, and the header shows both LONG and SHORT direction badges.
Affects existing ratings: 11 stocks moved out of Long and Short sections into Mixed Signals: GOOGL, AMZN, DIS, CPNG, DASH, MELI, RKT, UNH, BE, MSFT, Q. Signal counts in Long Ideas, Long Ideas — Already Moved, Short Ideas, and Short Ideas — Already Moved are each reduced accordingly.
May 21, 2026
Short Signal Fix & Short Ideas — Already Moved
Short signal detection had a significant bug: funds that completely exited a position have no Q1 holdings row in the 13F filing, making full exits invisible to the pipeline. Only partial reductions (where a fund still holds some shares) were being captured — which is why only MSFT and DIS appeared as short signals. The fix cross-references Q4 holdings against Q1 to detect complete exits as 100% reductions, bringing total short signals to 22 (11 passing the price filter). A new Short Ideas — Already Moved section was also added — the mirror image of Long Ideas — Already Moved, showing stocks where the exit thesis has already played out (stock down more than 10% vs SPY since quarter-end). News sentiment and insider activity are now enriched across all four signal sections: Long Ideas, Long Ideas — Already Moved, Short Ideas, and Short Ideas — Already Moved.
Affects existing ratings: Short Ideas now correctly reflects exits by 3+ funds. Previously missed signals include: Flutter Entertainment (5 funds), American Airlines, DoorDash (4 funds each), Shopify, Chipotle, Philip Morris, UnitedHealth, Synopsys, and others. MSFT updated from 3 to 5 funds; DIS from 3 to 4 funds.
May 21, 2026
Fund Universe Expanded to 27 Funds
Added two funds to the tracked universe: Himalaya Capital Management (Li Lu, ~$3.2B AUM) and TCI Fund Management (Chris Hohn, ~$45B AUM), both verified via SEC EDGAR with Q1 2026 13F-HR filings dated May 15, 2026. TCI's holdings notably boosted Visa to 8-fund convergence and introduced new signals in Moody's, S&P Global, and Canadian National Railway. We also completed a data quality pass on CUSIP-to-ticker resolution: the pipeline was generating spurious duplicate signals where unresolved CUSIP codes (9-character identifiers like 30303M102) appeared as tickers alongside the correct resolved symbols. All 213 duplicate rows were removed; the underlying pipeline fix ensures this cannot recur on future quarterly re-runs.
Affects existing ratings: Signal counts and conviction scores for several stocks increased as TCI and Himalaya holdings were incorporated into the 27-fund convergence calculation.
May 20, 2026
News Sentiment Recalibrated
The sentiment classifier was treating 'Neutral' as 'mixed news' — stocks with significant earnings misses, revenue declines, guidance cuts, or multiple red flags were being rated Neutral when the weight of evidence warranted Negative. We updated the classification logic with explicit definitions: Negative now applies to any material earnings miss (>10% below consensus), revenue decline, guidance cut, significant legal or leadership issue, or 3+ material red flags even when partially offset by positives. Neutral is reserved for genuinely unremarkable periods. All summaries have been re-generated with the updated logic.
Affects existing ratings: Stocks previously rated Neutral with notable headwinds may now appear Negative. The intent is that Neutral should mean 'nothing significant to flag' — not 'some bad news balanced by some good news.'
May 20, 2026
Long Ideas — Already Moved: Insider & News Coverage Added
Insider activity and news sentiment were previously only tracked for stocks passing the price filter (Long Ideas and Short Ideas). Stocks in the Long Ideas — Already Moved section — high-conviction buys that have outperformed SPY by more than 10% since quarter-end — now receive the same enrichment. This is particularly relevant for investors considering a momentum or re-entry play, where insider buying or a positive news backdrop may support further upside despite the stock having already moved.
May 20, 2026
Re-entry Signal (↩)
Long Ideas now display an amber ↩ badge next to the ticker when a stock previously appeared in Long Ideas — Already Moved and has since pulled back into range — meaning it outperformed SPY by more than 10% at some point since quarter-end, then gave back enough to re-enter the price filter. Re-entries may be worth additional attention: the institutional thesis played out once (funds were right), the price has since reverted to a more attractive level, and the underlying conviction from multiple hedge funds remains unchanged. The badge is a one-way flag — it persists even if the stock moves in and out of range multiple times.
May 20, 2026
Sortable Columns
All signal tables (Long Ideas, Long Ideas — Already Moved, Short Ideas, Short Ideas — Already Moved) now support sorting by clicking any column header. Sortable columns: Ticker (A–Z), Company (A–Z), Funds (most to fewest), Score (highest conviction first), Return (vs. SPY), Insider activity (Buy → Buy+Sell → Sell → None), and News sentiment (Positive → Neutral → Negative). The default sort remains conviction score descending, consistent with prior behavior. Clicking a column once sorts descending; clicking again toggles to ascending.