For informational purposes only — not investment advice

← Back to signals

ASML

LONGCONGRESS BUYCONGRESS SELL

ASML HLDG NV N Y REGISTRY

Research: Finviz ↗·Perplexity ↗

🗄 Viewing archived Q1 2026 data — frozen, no longer refreshed.

Funds
6
Score
7.53
vs SPY
+20.4%
Stock return (since Q-end)
+40.1%
SPY return (since Q-end)
+19.7%
Current price
$1844.08
Days to cover (short int.)
1.0d-16.9%
as of 2026-07-31

News Summary

Positive

ASML delivered exceptional H1 2026 performance with two guidance raises (to €43–45B full-year revenue, +16% vs. prior guidance) driven by AI chip capacity buildout, beating earnings on both occasions with expanding margins (54–56% guided for FY). However, the MATCH Act (passed House Foreign Affairs Committee April 22) explicitly targets ASML's DUV immersion tools and post-sale servicing of ~1,400 machines in China, with BofA estimating a full ban could reduce revenue by 14–15% and EBIT by 16–17%—a material downside risk the company has partially flagged in guidance.

Red flags

  • MATCH Act threatens 14–15% revenue and 16–17% EBIT impact if DUV and servicing ban fully implemented; export control risk is acute despite partial guidance buffer
  • China system sales collapsed from 36% (Q4 2025) to 19% (Q1 2026), with geopolitical/regulatory pressures likely to persist
  • High-NA EUV adoption (core growth driver) limited so far to Intel; TSMC delaying through 2029, suggesting customer hesitancy on expensive new technology

Funds Buying (6)

FundManagerShares Held∆ SharesPosition Value% of FundQoQStatus
Lone Pine CapitalSteve Mandel655K+50K$865M6.9%+8%Existing
Point72Steve Cohen565K+565K$746M1.3%NEW
Coatue ManagementPhilippe Laffont496K+496K$655M2.3%NEW
Third PointDan Loeb12K+12K$16M0.8%NEW
D1 CapitalDan Sundheim7K+7K$9M<0.1%NEW
Situational Awareness LPLeopold Aschenbrenner5K+5K$6M0.2%NEW

Shares Held and Position Value reflect total quarter-end holdings. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter. % of Fund is the position's share of the fund's reported equity portfolio — it drives the size weighting in the conviction score.

Portfolio Context

Where ASML ranks in each buying fund's book, and the positions immediately around it. What a holding sits next to often says more about the thesis than the position size does.

Lone Pine Capital

position #2 of this fund's book

  1. 1VISTRA CORP$930M
  2. 2ASML HLDG NV$865M
  3. 3CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORP$717M
  4. 4LPL FINL HLDGS INC$617M
  5. 5APPLOVIN CORP$583M
Point72

position #4 of this fund's book

  1. 1NVIDIA CORPORATION$1,323M
  2. 2AMAZON COM INC$1,033M
  3. 3ARISTA NETWORKS INC$804M
  4. 4ASML HLDG NV$746M
  5. 5CREDO TECHNOLOGY GROUP HOLDI$702M
  6. 6BROADCOM INC$701M
  7. 7TERADYNE INC$677M
Coatue Management

position #15 of this fund's book

  1. 12EQUINIX INC$1,069M
  2. 13MICROSOFT CORP$918M
  3. 14NETFLIX INC.$663M
  4. 15ASML HLDG NV$655M
  5. 16SPOTIFY TECHNOLOGY S A$641M
  6. 17APPLOVIN CORP$513M
  7. 18NATERA INC$508M
Situational Awareness LP

position #23 of this fund's book

  1. 20INTEL CORP$9M
  2. 21TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFAC$8M
  3. 22HIVE DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES LT$6M
  4. 23ASML HLDG NV N Y REGISTRY$6M
  5. 24MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC$6M
  6. 25CORNING INC$1M
  7. 26NVIDIA CORPORATION$0M
Third Point

position #23 of this fund's book

  1. 20STRATA CRITICAL MEDICAL INC$21M
  2. 21KLA CORP$16M
  3. 22LAM RESEARCH CORP$16M
  4. 23ASML HLDG NV$16M
  5. 24BROADCOM INC$15M
  6. 25VANECK ETF TRUST$15M
  7. 26SHARKNINJA INC$14M

Values are quarter-end position sizes. Shown only for funds where ASML ranks inside their 40 largest equity positions — below that, neighbouring names carry no signal. Adjacency is an inference about a fund's reasoning, not a disclosure of it.

Signal History

QuarterDirectionFundsScorevs SPY
Q2 2026LONG33.70-14.0%
Q1 2026LONG67.53+20.4%

Same issuer appearing in consecutive quarters — persistent institutional conviction. Returns are frozen at each archived quarter's last refresh.

Congressional Trading

MemberChamberStateTypeAmount RangeTransaction DateFiledSrc
Alan ArmstrongsenateBUY$1,001 - $15,0002026-03-312026-07-21
Alan ArmstrongsenateBUY$50,001 - $100,0002026-03-302026-07-21
Thomas H TubervillesenateSELL$15,001 - $50,0002024-05-032026-08-05

Periodic Transaction Reports filed under the STOCK Act. Amounts are disclosed as ranges, not exact dollar figures.