News Summary
PositiveMicrosoft delivered a strong Q4 FY2026 earnings beat (31% net income growth, $4.74 EPS vs. consensus) with robust Cloud/AI revenue growth of 18%, while raising capital spending guidance to ~$190B for calendar 2026 (+61% YoY) and signaling positive free cash flow ahead. However, the company faces material headwinds from widening FTC antitrust scrutiny (cloud bundling, Entra ID, Copilot), senior executive departures (Roslansky, Lee) framed as part of an AI transition, and European Commission investigation into Teams/Office 365 bundling practices.
Red flags
- •Expanding FTC antitrust investigation into cloud bundling, Entra ID, and Copilot AI with ongoing competitor interviews
- •European Commission assessing Teams/Office 365 bundling violations and cloud pricing practices on third-party platforms
- •Senior executive exodus in Q3/Q4 2026 (Ryan Roslansky departing end-of-year; Peter Lee departed September 2026) amid AI transition
- •Massive capital expenditure commitment ($190B) creates execution and ROI risk if AI monetization disappoints or capex plans face regulatory obstruction
Funds Buying (4)
| Fund | Manager | Shares Held | ∆ Shares | Position Value | % of Fund | QoQ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pershing Square | Bill Ackman | 6.2M | +552K | $2.3B | 11.9% | +10% | Existing |
| Coatue Management | Philippe Laffont | 2.9M | +456K | $1.1B | 2.3% | +18% | Existing |
| Altimeter Capital | Brad Gerstner | 1.3M | +84K | $473M | 4.8% | +7% | Existing |
| Maverick Capital | Lee Ainslie | 832K | +107K | $310M | 2.8% | +15% | Existing |
Shares Held and Position Value reflect total quarter-end holdings. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter. % of Fund is the position's share of the fund's reported equity portfolio — it drives the size weighting in the conviction score.
Portfolio Context
Where MSFT ranks in each buying fund's book, and the positions immediately around it. What a holding sits next to often says more about the thesis than the position size does.
position #3 of this fund's book
- 1UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC$2,477M
- 2BROOKFIELD CORP$2,448M
- 3MICROSOFT CORP$2,315M
- 4AMAZON COM INC$2,041M
- 5HOWARD HUGHES HOLDINGS INC$1,991M
- 6RESTAURANT BRANDS INTL INC$1,872M
position #10 of this fund's book
- 7AMAZON COM INC$578M
- 8UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC$532M
- 9SNOWFLAKE INC$490M
- 10MICROSOFT CORP$473M
- 11QUALCOMM INC$348M
- 12SPACE EXPLORATION TECHN CORP$304M
- 13MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC$242M
position #13 of this fund's book
- 10NATERA INC$368M
- 11TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFAC$340M
- 12DICKS SPORTING GOODS INC$334M
- 13MICROSOFT CORP$310M
- 14RTX CORPORATION$294M
- 15CAPITAL ONE FINL CORP$278M
- 16REPLIGEN CORP$271M
position #19 of this fund's book
- 16CONSTELLATION ENERGY CORP$1,151M
- 17FORGENT POWER SOLUTIONS INC$1,145M
- 18HUT 8 CORP$1,122M
- 19MICROSOFT CORP$1,095M
- 20NATERA INC$680M
- 21APPLOVIN CORP$603M
- 22SPOTIFY TECHNOLOGY S A$602M
Values are quarter-end position sizes. Shown only for funds where MSFT ranks inside their 40 largest equity positions — below that, neighbouring names carry no signal. Adjacency is an inference about a fund's reasoning, not a disclosure of it.
Funds Reducing / Exiting (4)
| Fund | Manager | Shares Held | ∆ Shares | Position Value | % of Fund | QoQ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point72 | Steve Cohen | 32K | -319,112 | $12M | 0.2% | -91% | Existing |
| Whale Rock Capital | Alex Sacerdote | 0 | −54K | — | 0.3% | -100% | EXITED |
| TCI Fund Management | Chris Hohn | 0 | −2.7M | — | 2.2% | -100% | EXITED |
| Appaloosa LP | David Tepper | 0 | −90K | — | 0.6% | -100% | EXITED |
Shares Held reflects quarter-end positions for partial reductions. Funds that fully exited show 0 shares held. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter. % of Fund is the prior-quarter position size — how much of the book was sold down.
Signal History
| Quarter | Direction | Funds | Score | vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | SHORT | 4 | 3.09 | +37.0% |
| Q2 2026 | LONG | 4 | 5.68 | +37.0% |
| Q1 2026 | SHORT | 5 | 7.50 | +14.4% |
| Q1 2026 | LONG | 3 | 4.98 | +14.4% |
Same issuer appearing in consecutive quarters — persistent institutional conviction. Returns are frozen at each archived quarter's last refresh.
Insider Activity
| Name | Title | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hood Amy | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | SELL | 4K | $495.97 | $2.15M | 2026-09-14 | ↗ |
| Hood Amy | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | SELL | 10K | $496.91 | $5.18M | 2026-09-14 | ↗ |
| Hood Amy | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | SELL | 10K | $497.78 | $4.89M | 2026-09-14 | ↗ |
| Hood Amy | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | SELL | 4K | $498.88 | $2.15M | 2026-09-14 | ↗ |
| Hood Amy | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | SELL | 9K | $500.11 | $4.42M | 2026-09-14 | ↗ |
| Hood Amy | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | SELL | 4K | $500.78 | $1.97M | 2026-09-14 | ↗ |
| Nadella Satya | Chief Executive Officer | SELL | 1K | $498.24 | $0.52M | 2026-09-01 | ↗ |
| Nadella Satya | Chief Executive Officer | SELL | 5K | $499.45 | $2.54M | 2026-09-01 | ↗ |
| Nadella Satya | Chief Executive Officer | SELL | 25K | $500.47 | $12.37M | 2026-09-01 | ↗ |
| Nadella Satya | Chief Executive Officer | SELL | 33K | $501.12 | $16.49M | 2026-09-01 | ↗ |
| Nadella Satya | Chief Executive Officer | SELL | 5K | $502.29 | $2.27M | 2026-09-01 | ↗ |
| Nadella Satya | Chief Executive Officer | SELL | 7K | $503.44 | $3.56M | 2026-09-01 | ↗ |
| Nadella Satya | Chief Executive Officer | SELL | 10K | $504.11 | $4.96M | 2026-09-01 | ↗ |
| Nadella Satya | Chief Executive Officer | SELL | 1K | $505.20 | $0.69M | 2026-09-01 | ↗ |
| Althoff Judson | CEO Microsoft Commercial | SELL | 10K | $487.89 | $4.88M | 2026-08-05 | ↗ |
| Numoto Takeshi | EVP, Chief Marketing Officer | SELL | 5K | $496.48 | $2.39M | 2026-08-04 | ↗ |
Beneficial Ownership (13D/13G)
| Filer | Form | Shares | % of Class | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | SC 13G | 556.0M | 7.5% | 2026-04-30 | ↗ |
SC 13D = active intent to influence control (10-day filing deadline after crossing 5%). SC 13G = passive accumulation, no intent to influence control.
Congressional Trading
| Member | Chamber | State | Type | Amount Range | Transaction Date | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleo Fields | house | LA06 | BUY | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-09-10 | 2026-10-01 | ↗ |
| Gilbert Cisneros | house | CA31 | BUY | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2026-08-18 | 2026-09-10 | ↗ |
| Josh Gottheimer | house | NJ05 | BUY | $500,001 - $1,000,000 | 2026-08-14 | 2026-09-14 | ↗ |
| Josh Gottheimer | house | NJ05 | SELL | $500,001 - $1,000,000 | 2026-08-14 | 2026-09-14 | ↗ |
| David J. Taylor | house | OH02 | SELL | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2026-08-11 | 2026-08-20 | ↗ |
| David J. Taylor | house | OH02 | BUY | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-07-24 | 2026-08-06 | ↗ |
| Shelley M Capito | senate | — | SELL | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2026-07-21 | 2026-08-04 | ↗ |
| Matthew Robert Van Epps | house | TN07 | SELL | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-06-16 | 2026-06-17 | ↗ |
| Alan Armstrong | senate | — | BUY | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-03-30 | 2026-07-21 | ↗ |
| Alan Armstrong | senate | — | BUY | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2026-03-27 | 2026-07-21 | ↗ |
| Thomas H Tuberville | senate | — | SELL | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2025-10-07 | 2026-08-05 | ↗ |
| John Boozman | senate | — | BUY | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2025-04-22 | 2026-08-20 | ↗ |
| John Boozman | senate | — | BUY | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2025-04-16 | 2026-08-20 | ↗ |
| Thomas H Tuberville | senate | — | SELL | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2025-04-15 | 2026-08-05 | ↗ |
| Thomas H Tuberville | senate | — | SELL | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2025-01-10 | 2026-08-05 | ↗ |
| Thomas H Tuberville | senate | — | SELL | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2024-10-29 | 2026-08-05 | ↗ |
| Thomas H Tuberville | senate | — | SELL | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2024-10-29 | 2026-08-05 | ↗ |
Periodic Transaction Reports filed under the STOCK Act. Amounts are disclosed as ranges, not exact dollar figures.