News Summary
PositiveMicrosoft delivered a strong Q4 FY2026 earnings beat with $90.0B revenue (+18% YoY) and $4.81 GAAP EPS (+32%), bolstered by a $3.2B Anthropic investment gain and Azure guidance of ~45% growth, driving a 15.5% single-day rally. However, capex intensity remains elevated at $41B in the quarter ($175B annualized after accounting changes), and near-term guidance shows consensus revenue near the top of guidance range, leaving limited upside surprise potential for Q1 FY2027.
Red flags
- •Capex jumped 69% in Q4; $175B annual run-rate represents sustained heavy AI infrastructure investment with uncertain ROI timeline
- •Early 2026 analyst warning (Stifel, February) about 'too optimistic' market expectations for fiscal 2027 amid Azure supply constraints—partially offset by later upgrades but supply risks remain
- •Q1 FY2027 consensus revenue ($90.7B) sits at high end of guidance ($90.95B), leaving minimal upside surprise buffer
- •Xbox restructuring with 268 job cuts signals softness in gaming segment
Funds Buying (4)
| Fund | Manager | Shares Held | ∆ Shares | Position Value | % of Fund | QoQ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pershing Square | Bill Ackman | 6.2M | +552K | $2.3B | 11.9% | +10% | Existing |
| Coatue Management | Philippe Laffont | 2.9M | +456K | $1.1B | 2.3% | +18% | Existing |
| Altimeter Capital | Brad Gerstner | 1.3M | +84K | $473M | 4.8% | +7% | Existing |
| Maverick Capital | Lee Ainslie | 832K | +107K | $310M | 2.8% | +15% | Existing |
Shares Held and Position Value reflect total quarter-end holdings. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter. % of Fund is the position's share of the fund's reported equity portfolio — it drives the size weighting in the conviction score.
Portfolio Context
Where MSFT ranks in each buying fund's book, and the positions immediately around it. What a holding sits next to often says more about the thesis than the position size does.
position #3 of this fund's book
- 1UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC$2,477M
- 2BROOKFIELD CORP$2,448M
- 3MICROSOFT CORP$2,315M
- 4AMAZON COM INC$2,041M
- 5HOWARD HUGHES HOLDINGS INC$1,991M
- 6RESTAURANT BRANDS INTL INC$1,872M
position #10 of this fund's book
- 7AMAZON COM INC$578M
- 8UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC$532M
- 9SNOWFLAKE INC$490M
- 10MICROSOFT CORP$473M
- 11QUALCOMM INC$348M
- 12SPACE EXPLORATION TECHN CORP$304M
- 13MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC$242M
position #13 of this fund's book
- 10NATERA INC$368M
- 11TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFAC$340M
- 12DICKS SPORTING GOODS INC$334M
- 13MICROSOFT CORP$310M
- 14RTX CORPORATION$294M
- 15CAPITAL ONE FINL CORP$278M
- 16REPLIGEN CORP$271M
position #19 of this fund's book
- 16CONSTELLATION ENERGY CORP$1,151M
- 17FORGENT POWER SOLUTIONS INC$1,145M
- 18HUT 8 CORP$1,122M
- 19MICROSOFT CORP$1,095M
- 20NATERA INC$680M
- 21APPLOVIN CORP$603M
- 22SPOTIFY TECHNOLOGY S A$602M
Values are quarter-end position sizes. Shown only for funds where MSFT ranks inside their 40 largest equity positions — below that, neighbouring names carry no signal. Adjacency is an inference about a fund's reasoning, not a disclosure of it.
Funds Reducing / Exiting (4)
| Fund | Manager | Shares Held | ∆ Shares | Position Value | % of Fund | QoQ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point72 | Steve Cohen | 32K | -319,112 | $12M | 0.2% | -91% | Existing |
| Whale Rock Capital | Alex Sacerdote | 0 | −54K | — | 0.3% | -100% | EXITED |
| TCI Fund Management | Chris Hohn | 0 | −2.7M | — | 2.2% | -100% | EXITED |
| Appaloosa LP | David Tepper | 0 | −90K | — | 0.6% | -100% | EXITED |
Shares Held reflects quarter-end positions for partial reductions. Funds that fully exited show 0 shares held. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter. % of Fund is the prior-quarter position size — how much of the book was sold down.
Signal History
| Quarter | Direction | Funds | Score | vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | SHORT | 4 | 3.09 | +40.9% |
| Q2 2026 | LONG | 4 | 5.68 | +40.9% |
| Q1 2026 | SHORT | 5 | 7.50 | +14.4% |
| Q1 2026 | LONG | 3 | 4.98 | +14.4% |
Same issuer appearing in consecutive quarters — persistent institutional conviction. Returns are frozen at each archived quarter's last refresh.
Insider Activity
| Name | Title | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hood Amy | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | SELL | 4K | $495.97 | $2.15M | 2026-09-14 | ↗ |
| Hood Amy | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | SELL | 10K | $496.91 | $5.18M | 2026-09-14 | ↗ |
| Hood Amy | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | SELL | 10K | $497.78 | $4.89M | 2026-09-14 | ↗ |
| Hood Amy | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | SELL | 4K | $498.88 | $2.15M | 2026-09-14 | ↗ |
| Hood Amy | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | SELL | 9K | $500.11 | $4.42M | 2026-09-14 | ↗ |
| Hood Amy | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | SELL | 4K | $500.78 | $1.97M | 2026-09-14 | ↗ |
| Nadella Satya | Chief Executive Officer | SELL | 1K | $498.24 | $0.52M | 2026-09-01 | ↗ |
| Nadella Satya | Chief Executive Officer | SELL | 5K | $499.45 | $2.54M | 2026-09-01 | ↗ |
| Nadella Satya | Chief Executive Officer | SELL | 25K | $500.47 | $12.37M | 2026-09-01 | ↗ |
| Nadella Satya | Chief Executive Officer | SELL | 33K | $501.12 | $16.49M | 2026-09-01 | ↗ |
| Nadella Satya | Chief Executive Officer | SELL | 5K | $502.29 | $2.27M | 2026-09-01 | ↗ |
| Nadella Satya | Chief Executive Officer | SELL | 7K | $503.44 | $3.56M | 2026-09-01 | ↗ |
| Nadella Satya | Chief Executive Officer | SELL | 10K | $504.11 | $4.96M | 2026-09-01 | ↗ |
| Nadella Satya | Chief Executive Officer | SELL | 1K | $505.20 | $0.69M | 2026-09-01 | ↗ |
| Althoff Judson | CEO Microsoft Commercial | SELL | 10K | $487.89 | $4.88M | 2026-08-05 | ↗ |
| Numoto Takeshi | EVP, Chief Marketing Officer | SELL | 5K | $496.48 | $2.39M | 2026-08-04 | ↗ |
Beneficial Ownership (13D/13G)
| Filer | Form | Shares | % of Class | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | SC 13G | 556.0M | 7.5% | 2026-04-30 | ↗ |
SC 13D = active intent to influence control (10-day filing deadline after crossing 5%). SC 13G = passive accumulation, no intent to influence control.
Congressional Trading
| Member | Chamber | State | Type | Amount Range | Transaction Date | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleo Fields | house | LA06 | BUY | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-09-10 | 2026-10-01 | ↗ |
| Gilbert Cisneros | house | CA31 | BUY | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2026-08-18 | 2026-09-10 | ↗ |
| Josh Gottheimer | house | NJ05 | BUY | $500,001 - $1,000,000 | 2026-08-14 | 2026-09-14 | ↗ |
| Josh Gottheimer | house | NJ05 | SELL | $500,001 - $1,000,000 | 2026-08-14 | 2026-09-14 | ↗ |
| David J. Taylor | house | OH02 | SELL | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2026-08-11 | 2026-08-20 | ↗ |
| David J. Taylor | house | OH02 | BUY | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-07-24 | 2026-08-06 | ↗ |
| Shelley M Capito | senate | — | SELL | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2026-07-21 | 2026-08-04 | ↗ |
| Matthew Robert Van Epps | house | TN07 | SELL | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-06-16 | 2026-06-17 | ↗ |
| Alan Armstrong | senate | — | BUY | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-03-30 | 2026-07-21 | ↗ |
| Alan Armstrong | senate | — | BUY | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2026-03-27 | 2026-07-21 | ↗ |
| Thomas H Tuberville | senate | — | SELL | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2025-10-07 | 2026-08-05 | ↗ |
| John Boozman | senate | — | BUY | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2025-04-22 | 2026-08-20 | ↗ |
| John Boozman | senate | — | BUY | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2025-04-16 | 2026-08-20 | ↗ |
| Thomas H Tuberville | senate | — | SELL | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2025-04-15 | 2026-08-05 | ↗ |
| Thomas H Tuberville | senate | — | SELL | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2025-01-10 | 2026-08-05 | ↗ |
| Thomas H Tuberville | senate | — | SELL | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2024-10-29 | 2026-08-05 | ↗ |
| Thomas H Tuberville | senate | — | SELL | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2024-10-29 | 2026-08-05 | ↗ |
Periodic Transaction Reports filed under the STOCK Act. Amounts are disclosed as ranges, not exact dollar figures.