MSFT

LONGSHORTINSIDER SELL

MICROSOFT CORP

Buyers

4.50

Sellers

5.00

vs SPY

+5.6%

Stock return (since Q-end)

+21.9%

SPY return (since Q-end)

+16.3%

Current price

$450.24

News Summary

Negative

Microsoft delivered a strong Q3 FY2026 earnings beat (EPS $4.27 vs. $4.06 expected) with robust cloud/AI growth (Azure +40%, AI revenue run rate $37B), but revealed a massive $190B FY26 capex plan—$35B above consensus—that has driven YTD stock underperformance and signaled elevated spending will persist into FY27. Gross margins compressed to 67.6% (lowest since 2022) due to data center buildout and component inflation, creating near-term profitability headwinds despite strong top-line momentum.

Red flags

•FY26 capex guidance of $190B represents 61% increase YoY and $35B miss vs. analyst consensus; $25B attributed to component price inflation rather than capacity
•CFO indicated component price normalization unlikely for 12+ months, implying FY27 capex will remain elevated and margin recovery delayed
•Gross margin at 67.6% is the narrowest since 2022; margin expansion guidance of ~1 point YoY insufficient to offset capex burden
•Stock down ~12% YTD despite earnings beat, reflecting sustained investor concern about capital intensity and AI monetization risk eating into legacy software revenues
•Active FTC antitrust investigation presents regulatory risk to licensing, pricing, and bundling models
•Major analyst downgrade from Stifel (Buy to Hold, PT cut from $540 to $392) citing heavy AI spending and competitive pressure

Funds Buying (3)

Fund	Manager	Shares Held	∆ Shares	Position Value	QoQ	Status
Pershing Square	Bill Ackman	5.7M	+5.7M	$2093.0B	—	NEW
TCI Fund Management	Chris Hohn	2.7M	+2.7M	$1010.0B	—	NEW
Point72	Steve Cohen	351K	+351K	$129.8B	—	NEW

Shares Held and Position Value reflect total quarter-end holdings. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter.

Funds Reducing / Exiting (5)

Fund	Manager	Shares Held	∆ Shares	Position Value	QoQ	Status
Tiger Global	Chase Coleman	2.5M	-2,977,651	$925.4B	-54%	Existing
Coatue Management	Philippe Laffont	2.5M	-2,692,073	$918.0B	-52%	Existing
Appaloosa LP	David Tepper	90K	-410,000	$33.3B	-82%	Existing
Lone Pine Capital	Steve Mandel	0	—	—	-100%	EXITED
Third Point	Dan Loeb	0	—	—	-100%	EXITED

Shares Held reflects quarter-end positions for partial reductions. Funds that fully exited show 0 shares held. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter.

Insider Activity

Name	Title	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Filed
Coleman Amy	EVP, Chief Human Resources Off	SELL	1K	$411.34	$0.52M	2026-05-14