News Summary
NeutralCapital One delivered Q2 2026 earnings largely in line with expectations (EPS $4.73 vs. consensus $4.72) with improved credit conditions, but the company remains down ~20% YTD as investors digest substantial integration costs from the $35.3B Discover acquisition. The critical operational phase—migrating Discover's card portfolio to Capital One's systems through early 2027—carries execution risk, though analyst sentiment remains predominantly bullish despite a recent Citigroup target price reduction.
Red flags
- •Stock down nearly 20% in 2026 despite earnings beat and credit improvement
- •Q1 2026 earnings miss ($4.42 adjusted EPS vs. consensus) triggered 1.5% decline
- •Extended Discover integration timeline (July 2026–early 2027) creates sustained execution risk and operational complexity
- •Citigroup downgraded price target from $295 to $280 in late September 2026
- •Integration costs creating significant drag on stock despite solid underlying operational performance
Funds Buying (3)
| Fund | Manager | Shares Held | ∆ Shares | Position Value | % of Fund | QoQ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point72 | Steve Cohen | 2.5M | +881K | $507M | 0.8% | +53% | Existing |
| Maverick Capital | Lee Ainslie | 1.4M | +136K | $278M | 2.5% | +11% | Existing |
| Third Point | Dan Loeb | 825K | +685K | $166M | 3.6% | +489% | Existing |
Shares Held and Position Value reflect total quarter-end holdings. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter. % of Fund is the position's share of the fund's reported equity portfolio — it drives the size weighting in the conviction score.
Portfolio Context
Where COF ranks in each buying fund's book, and the positions immediately around it. What a holding sits next to often says more about the thesis than the position size does.
position #12 of this fund's book
- 9SNOWFLAKE INC$716M
- 10PROCTER & GAMBLE CO$634M
- 11RTX CORPORATION$626M
- 12CAPITAL ONE FINL CORP$507M
- 13ORACLE CORP$500M
- 14MONDELEZ INTL INC$475M
- 15KEURIG DR PEPPER INC$457M
position #13 of this fund's book
- 10BLOCK INC$194M
- 11NORFOLK SOUTHN CORP$189M
- 12FLEX LTD$167M
- 13CAPITAL ONE FINL CORP$166M
- 14HUT 8 CORP$152M
- 15CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORP$133M
- 16API GROUP CORP$121M
position #15 of this fund's book
- 12DICKS SPORTING GOODS INC$334M
- 13MICROSOFT CORP$310M
- 14RTX CORPORATION$294M
- 15CAPITAL ONE FINL CORP$278M
- 16REPLIGEN CORP$271M
- 17PHILIP MORRIS INTL INC$264M
- 18VISA INC$258M
Values are quarter-end position sizes. Shown only for funds where COF ranks inside their 40 largest equity positions — below that, neighbouring names carry no signal. Adjacency is an inference about a fund's reasoning, not a disclosure of it.
Funds Reducing / Exiting (3)
| Fund | Manager | Shares Held | ∆ Shares | Position Value | % of Fund | QoQ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway | Warren Buffett | 3.0M | -4,149,666 | $602M | 0.5% | -58% | Existing |
| Viking Global | Andreas Halvorsen | 388K | -1,224,721 | $78M | 0.8% | -76% | Existing |
| Lone Pine Capital | Steve Mandel | 0 | −2.3M | — | 3.3% | -100% | EXITED |
Shares Held reflects quarter-end positions for partial reductions. Funds that fully exited show 0 shares held. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter. % of Fund is the prior-quarter position size — how much of the book was sold down.
Signal History
| Quarter | Direction | Funds | Score | vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | SHORT | 3 | 2.94 | -6.4% |
| Q2 2026 | LONG | 3 | 3.97 | -6.4% |
| Q1 2026 | LONG | 3 | 2.75 | +5.5% |
Same issuer appearing in consecutive quarters — persistent institutional conviction. Returns are frozen at each archived quarter's last refresh.
Insider Activity
| Name | Title | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karam Celia | Pres, Retail Bank | SELL | 2K | $206.07 | $0.42M | 2026-09-15 | ↗ |
| Dean Lia | Pres, Banking & Prem. Products | SELL | 2K | $206.07 | $0.43M | 2026-09-15 | ↗ |
| Cooper Matthew W | General Counsel & Corp Secy | SELL | 4K | $214.10 | $0.75M | 2026-09-01 | ↗ |
| Dean Lia | Pres, Banking & Prem. Products | SELL | 2K | $225.52 | $0.49M | 2026-08-17 | ↗ |
| Dean Lia | Pres, Banking & Prem. Products | SELL | 1 | $225.92 | $0.00M | 2026-08-17 | ↗ |
| Karam Celia | Pres, Retail Bank | SELL | 2K | $225.52 | $0.43M | 2026-08-17 | ↗ |
| Karam Celia | Pres, Retail Bank | SELL | 1 | $225.92 | $0.00M | 2026-08-17 | ↗ |
| Mouadeb Mark Daniel | President, Card | SELL | 1K | $225.00 | $0.27M | 2026-08-13 | ↗ |
| Zamsky Michael | Chief Credit & Fin'l Risk Off. | SELL | 5K | $218.02 | $1.19M | 2026-08-10 | ↗ |
| Raghu Ravi | Pres, Software, Intl & Sm Bus | SELL | 50 | $218.49 | $0.01M | 2026-08-07 | ↗ |
| Mouadeb Mark Daniel | President, Card | SELL | 1K | $220.00 | $0.26M | 2026-08-04 | ↗ |
| Cooper Matthew W | General Counsel & Corp Secy | SELL | 4K | $219.33 | $0.77M | 2026-08-04 | ↗ |
| Mouadeb Mark Daniel | President, Card | SELL | 690 | $215.00 | $0.15M | 2026-08-03 | ↗ |
| Raghu Ravi | Pres, Software, Intl & Sm Bus | SELL | 3K | $209.27 | $0.72M | 2026-07-31 | ↗ |
| Raghu Ravi | Pres, Software, Intl & Sm Bus | SELL | 6K | $210.02 | $1.22M | 2026-07-31 | ↗ |
| Raghu Ravi | Pres, Software, Intl & Sm Bus | SELL | 444 | $210.70 | $0.09M | 2026-07-31 | ↗ |
| Golden Timothy P | SVP, Chief Accounting Officer | SELL | 3K | $211.00 | $0.74M | 2026-07-29 | ↗ |
| Cooper Matthew W | General Counsel & Corp Secy | SELL | 4K | $208.00 | $0.73M | 2026-07-07 | ↗ |
Beneficial Ownership (13D/13G)
| Filer | Form | Shares | % of Class | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | SC 13G | 46.7M | 7.5% | 2026-04-29 | ↗ |
SC 13D = active intent to influence control (10-day filing deadline after crossing 5%). SC 13G = passive accumulation, no intent to influence control.
Congressional Trading
| Member | Chamber | State | Type | Amount Range | Transaction Date | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | senate | — | BUY | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-03-27 | 2026-07-21 | ↗ |
Periodic Transaction Reports filed under the STOCK Act. Amounts are disclosed as ranges, not exact dollar figures.