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COF
LONGINSIDER SELLCAPITAL ONE FINL CORP
Funds
3
Score
3.50
vs SPY
-12.9%
Stock return (since Q-end)
+3.5%
SPY return (since Q-end)
+16.3%
Current price
$187.93
News Summary
NegativeCapital One reported Q1 2026 earnings that missed consensus estimates on both EPS ($4.42 vs. $4.60) and revenue ($15.23B vs. $15.51B), driven by a 72% surge in credit loss provisions reflecting consumer stress, despite strong loan growth from the Discover acquisition. While the company maintains a strong competitive position as the largest U.S. credit card issuer post-Discover and Brex deals, analyst price targets were broadly cut 10-20% following the miss, and full-year 2026 EPS guidance implies a 2.2% decline year-over-year.
Red flags
- •Missed adjusted EPS by 3.9% ($4.42 vs. $4.60 estimate)
- •Missed revenue estimate by ~1.8% ($15.23B vs. $15.51B)
- •72% increase in provision for credit losses signals deteriorating credit quality and consumer stress
- •Net charge-offs up to $3.8B (3.45% NCO rate) reflecting credit deterioration
- •Full-year 2026 EPS expected to decline 2.2% YoY to $19.17
- •Stock declined 6.43% post-earnings and is -22.32% YTD
- •Multiple analyst price target cuts of 10-20% following Q1 results (Goldman, Barclays, Evercore, JPMorgan, Truist)
- •Rising non-interest expenses (43% increase) from Discover/Brex integration and intangible amortization create near-term margin pressure
Funds Buying (3)
| Fund | Manager | Shares Held | ∆ Shares | Position Value | QoQ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point72 | Steve Cohen | 1.6M | +452K | $300.8B | +38% | Existing |
| D1 Capital | Dan Sundheim | 1.1M | +289K | $203.7B | +35% | Existing |
| Soros Fund Management | Soros Family Office | 180K | +180K | $32.9B | — | NEW |
Shares Held and Position Value reflect total quarter-end holdings. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter.
Insider Activity
| Name | Title | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haggerty Kaitlin | Chief Human Resources Officer | SELL | 119 | $182.59 | $0.02M | 2026-05-13 |
| Haggerty Kaitlin | Chief Human Resources Officer | SELL | 1K | $183.93 | $0.24M | 2026-05-12 |
| Cooper Matthew W | General Counsel & Corp Secy | SELL | 4K | $183.93 | $0.64M | 2026-05-12 |
| Karam Celia | Pres, Retail Bank | SELL | 2K | $192.58 | $0.34M | 2026-05-01 |
| Dean Lia | Pres, Banking & Prem. Products | SELL | 2K | $185.61 | $0.31M | 2026-04-01 |
| Karam Celia | Pres, Retail Bank | SELL | 1K | $185.61 | $0.20M | 2026-04-01 |