For informational purposes only — not investment advice

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COF

LONGINSIDER SELLCONGRESS BUY

CAPITAL ONE FINL CORP

Research: Finviz ↗·Perplexity ↗

🗄 Viewing archived Q1 2026 data — frozen, no longer refreshed.

Funds
3
Score
2.75
vs SPY
+5.5%
Stock return (since Q-end)
+25.1%
SPY return (since Q-end)
+19.7%
Current price
$227.34
Days to cover (short int.)
2.3d-16.6%
as of 2026-07-31

News Summary

Positive

Capital One delivered solid operational execution post-Discover integration with Q2 2026 EPS of $5.81 (adjusted) and strong credit metrics, though Q1 earnings missed consensus estimates due to higher-than-expected credit loss provisions. The $35.3B Discover acquisition fundamentally transformed COF into the largest U.S. credit card issuer with its own payments network, positioning it to capture synergies while reducing Visa/Mastercard dependence, but integration risks and potential regulatory headwinds from Trump's proposed 10% credit card rate cap remain key variables.

Red flags

  • Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $4.42 missed consensus of $4.57 by ~3.4%
  • Credit loss provision of $4.07B in Q1 exceeded analyst expectations of $3.77B
  • Potential material impact from proposed Trump credit card interest rate cap at 10% if implemented
  • Ongoing CFPB Civil Investigative Demand relating to savings account products (status unclear as of news cutoff)
  • Significant integration execution risk on $35.3B Discover and $4.5B Brex acquisitions with key migration milestones still pending (Discover tech stack completion Q3 2026, back book Q1 2027)

Funds Buying (3)

FundManagerShares Held∆ SharesPosition Value% of FundQoQStatus
Point72Steve Cohen1.6M+452K$301M0.5%+38%Existing
D1 CapitalDan Sundheim1.1M+289K$204M1.8%+35%Existing
Soros Fund ManagementSoros Family Office180K+180K$33M0.5%NEW

Shares Held and Position Value reflect total quarter-end holdings. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter. % of Fund is the position's share of the fund's reported equity portfolio — it drives the size weighting in the conviction score.

Portfolio Context

Where COF ranks in each buying fund's book, and the positions immediately around it. What a holding sits next to often says more about the thesis than the position size does.

Point72

position #23 of this fund's book

  1. 20PROCTER & GAMBLE CO$303M
  2. 21T-MOBILE US INC$303M
  3. 22COMFORT SYS USA INC$302M
  4. 23CAPITAL ONE FINL CORP$301M
  5. 24INTUITIVE SURGICAL INC$293M
  6. 25ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC$288M
  7. 26MONDELEZ INTL INC$284M
D1 Capital

position #27 of this fund's book

  1. 24COUPANG INC$219M
  2. 25DOORDASH INC$216M
  3. 26CARVANA CO$210M
  4. 27CAPITAL ONE FINL CORP$204M
  5. 28MARTIN MARIETTA MATLS INC$190M
  6. 29SPOTIFY TECHNOLOGY S A$165M
  7. 30JOHNSON CONTROLS INTERNATION$160M

Values are quarter-end position sizes. Shown only for funds where COF ranks inside their 40 largest equity positions — below that, neighbouring names carry no signal. Adjacency is an inference about a fund's reasoning, not a disclosure of it.

Signal History

QuarterDirectionFundsScorevs SPY
Q2 2026SHORT32.94+4.2%
Q2 2026LONG33.97+4.2%
Q1 2026LONG32.75+5.5%

Same issuer appearing in consecutive quarters — persistent institutional conviction. Returns are frozen at each archived quarter's last refresh.

Insider Activity

NameTitleTypeSharesPriceValueFiledSrc
Zamsky MichaelChief Credit & Fin'l Risk Off.SELL5K$218.02$1.19M2026-08-10
Raghu RaviPres, Software, Intl & Sm BusSELL50$218.49$0.01M2026-08-07
Mouadeb Mark DanielPresident, CardSELL1K$220.00$0.26M2026-08-04
Cooper Matthew WGeneral Counsel & Corp SecySELL4K$219.33$0.77M2026-08-04
Mouadeb Mark DanielPresident, CardSELL690$215.00$0.15M2026-08-03
Raghu RaviPres, Software, Intl & Sm BusSELL3K$209.27$0.72M2026-07-31
Raghu RaviPres, Software, Intl & Sm BusSELL6K$210.02$1.22M2026-07-31
Raghu RaviPres, Software, Intl & Sm BusSELL444$210.70$0.09M2026-07-31
Golden Timothy PSVP, Chief Accounting OfficerSELL3K$211.00$0.74M2026-07-29
Cooper Matthew WGeneral Counsel & Corp SecySELL4K$208.00$0.73M2026-07-07
Cooper Matthew WGeneral Counsel & Corp SecySELL4K$183.36$0.64M2026-06-02
Haggerty KaitlinChief Human Resources OfficerSELL119$182.59$0.02M2026-05-13
Cooper Matthew WGeneral Counsel & Corp SecySELL4K$183.93$0.64M2026-05-12
Haggerty KaitlinChief Human Resources OfficerSELL1K$183.93$0.24M2026-05-12
Karam CeliaPres, Retail BankSELL2K$192.58$0.34M2026-05-01
Dean LiaPres, Banking & Prem. ProductsSELL2K$185.61$0.31M2026-04-01
Karam CeliaPres, Retail BankSELL1K$185.61$0.20M2026-04-01

Congressional Trading

MemberChamberStateTypeAmount RangeTransaction DateFiledSrc
Alan ArmstrongsenateBUY$1,001 - $15,0002026-03-272026-07-21

Periodic Transaction Reports filed under the STOCK Act. Amounts are disclosed as ranges, not exact dollar figures.