News Summary
NegativeCarvana delivered record Q2 2026 results with $513M net income, $7.376B revenue, and 197,325 vehicle sales (38% YoY growth), marking its 10th consecutive quarter of profitability and growth. However, full-year 2026 EBITDA guidance of $2.7B–$3.0B fell materially below analyst consensus ($3.0B–$4.45B), triggering multiple price target cuts despite an overall 'Buy' consensus and continued operational expansion.
Red flags
- •Full-year 2026 EBITDA guidance $2.7B–$3.0B missed consensus by 8–48% depending on forecaster (Morgan Stanley $3.16B prior, Wells Fargo consensus ~$3.0B+)
- •Morgan Stanley and Barclays cut price targets on guidance concerns despite earnings beat
- •CFO insider share sale (63,750 shares) amid post-earnings stock pressure
- •Year-to-date share price down 24.47% despite record profitability, signaling investor skepticism on growth trajectory
- •Guidance disappointment offset strong Q2 results, indicating market concern about sustainability at scale
Funds Buying (9)
| Fund | Manager | Shares Held | ∆ Shares | Position Value | % of Fund | QoQ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viking Global | Andreas Halvorsen | 12.3M | +9.5M | $811M | 2.3% | +343% | Existing |
| Lone Pine Capital | Steve Mandel | 10.5M | +8.8M | $692M | 4.2% | +500% | Existing |
| Durable Capital Partners | Henry Ellenbogen | 6.7M | +5.7M | $442M | 4.3% | +575% | Existing |
| Sachem Head Capital | Scott Ferguson | 4.5M | +3.7M | $295M | 6.1% | +466% | Existing |
| Whale Rock Capital | Alex Sacerdote | 4.3M | +3.4M | $281M | 2.3% | +386% | Existing |
| D1 Capital | Dan Sundheim | 3.8M | +3.1M | $249M | 0.7% | +465% | Existing |
| Coatue Management | Philippe Laffont | 3.3M | +2.6M | $216M | 0.4% | +381% | Existing |
| Maverick Capital | Lee Ainslie | 2.6M | +2.2M | $174M | 1.6% | +528% | Existing |
| Duquesne Family Office | Stanley Druckenmiller | 151K | +151K | $10M | 0.2% | — | NEW |
Shares Held and Position Value reflect total quarter-end holdings. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter. % of Fund is the position's share of the fund's reported equity portfolio — it drives the size weighting in the conviction score.
Portfolio Context
Where CVNA ranks in each buying fund's book, and the positions immediately around it. What a holding sits next to often says more about the thesis than the position size does.
position #7 of this fund's book
- 4Performance Food Group Co$374M
- 5MKS INC.$361M
- 6Dicks Sporting Goods Inc$338M
- 7Carvana Co$295M
- 8Sotera Health Co$276M
- 9Celsius Hldgs Inc$266M
- 10GDS Hldgs Ltd$261M
position #8 of this fund's book
- 5MERCADOLIBRE INC$524M
- 6API GROUP CORP$514M
- 7XPO INC$498M
- 8CARVANA CO$442M
- 9MADISON AIR SOLUTIONS CORP$398M
- 10TWILIO INC$381M
- 11AFFIRM HLDGS INC$361M
position #10 of this fund's book
- 7LINDE PLC$809M
- 8TERADYNE INC$722M
- 9CORNING INC$697M
- 10CARVANA CO$692M
- 11HUT 8 CORP$666M
- 12PERFORMANCE FOOD GROUP CO$654M
- 13NU HLDGS LTD$631M
position #13 of this fund's book
- 10LENNOX INTL INC$912M
- 11AMAZON COM INC$882M
- 12FERRARI N V$817M
- 13CARVANA CO$811M
- 14MCDONALDS CORP$765M
- 15BRIDGEBIO PHARMA INC$741M
- 16BOEING CO$709M
position #19 of this fund's book
- 16VIAVI SOLUTIONS INC$328M
- 17LAM RESEARCH CORP$322M
- 18TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFAC$282M
- 19CARVANA CO$281M
- 20META PLATFORMS INC$257M
- 21WESTERN DIGITAL CORP$256M
- 22APPLOVIN CORP$238M
position #22 of this fund's book
- 19DISNEY WALT CO$277M
- 20ALPHABET INC$264M
- 21SPOTIFY TECHNOLOGY S A$261M
- 22CARVANA CO$249M
- 23DOORDASH INC$241M
- 24INTUITIVE SURGICAL INC$228M
- 25SCHWAB CHARLES CORP$228M
position #27 of this fund's book
- 24SHERWIN WILLIAMS CO$198M
- 25CAMDEN PPTY TR$195M
- 26VULCAN MATLS CO$188M
- 27CARVANA CO$174M
- 28SOUTHWEST GAS HLDGS INC$168M
- 29COCA COLA CO$163M
- 30PERFORMANCE FOOD GROUP CO$141M
position #32 of this fund's book
- 29FIRST CTZNS BANCSHARES INC D$290M
- 30VERTIV HOLDINGS CO$270M
- 31QUALCOMM INC$256M
- 32CARVANA CO$216M
- 33MASTEC INC$215M
- 34CARIS LIFE SCIENCES INC$175M
- 35SYNOPSYS INC$142M
Values are quarter-end position sizes. Shown only for funds where CVNA ranks inside their 40 largest equity positions — below that, neighbouring names carry no signal. Adjacency is an inference about a fund's reasoning, not a disclosure of it.
Signal History
| Quarter | Direction | Funds | Score | vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | LONG | 9 | 12.65 | +6.5% |
| Q1 2026 | LONG | 6 | 8.50 | +0.5% |
Same issuer appearing in consecutive quarters — persistent institutional conviction. Returns are frozen at each archived quarter's last refresh.
Insider Activity
| Name | Title | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLATT IRA J. | — | SELL | 15K | $75.50 | $1.13M | 2026-08-14 | ↗ |
| QUAYLE J DANFORTH | — | SELL | 15K | $75.00 | $1.09M | 2026-08-14 | ↗ |
| PLATT IRA J. | — | SELL | 15K | $73.00 | $1.09M | 2026-08-13 | ↗ |
| JENKINS MARK W. | Chief Financial Officer | SELL | 23K | $64.93 | $1.49M | 2026-08-03 | ↗ |
| JENKINS MARK W. | Chief Financial Officer | SELL | 9K | $65.75 | $0.57M | 2026-08-03 | ↗ |
| Palmer Stephen R | Vice President of Accounting | SELL | 760 | $63.19 | $0.05M | 2026-08-03 | ↗ |
| Palmer Stephen R | Vice President of Accounting | SELL | 2K | $64.22 | $0.15M | 2026-08-03 | ↗ |
| Palmer Stephen R | Vice President of Accounting | SELL | 1K | $65.14 | $0.09M | 2026-08-03 | ↗ |
| Palmer Stephen R | Vice President of Accounting | SELL | 520 | $65.82 | $0.03M | 2026-08-03 | ↗ |
| JENKINS MARK W. | Chief Financial Officer | SELL | 24K | $64.08 | $1.56M | 2026-08-03 | ↗ |
| JENKINS MARK W. | Chief Financial Officer | SELL | 8K | $63.17 | $0.50M | 2026-08-03 | ↗ |
| HUSTON BENJAMIN E. | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 6K | $63.18 | $0.40M | 2026-08-03 | ↗ |
| HUSTON BENJAMIN E. | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 22K | $64.14 | $1.42M | 2026-08-03 | ↗ |
| HUSTON BENJAMIN E. | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 16K | $65.06 | $1.04M | 2026-08-03 | ↗ |
| HUSTON BENJAMIN E. | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 6K | $65.81 | $0.37M | 2026-08-03 | ↗ |
| MAROONE MICHAEL E | — | BUY | 21K | $61.69 | $1.30M | 2026-07-31 | ↗ |
| MAROONE MICHAEL E | — | BUY | 4K | $62.40 | $0.24M | 2026-07-31 | ↗ |
| Palmer Stephen R | Vice President of Accounting | SELL | 600 | $69.69 | $0.04M | 2026-07-01 | ↗ |
| Palmer Stephen R | Vice President of Accounting | SELL | 1K | $70.52 | $0.08M | 2026-07-01 | ↗ |
| JENKINS MARK W. | Chief Financial Officer | SELL | 7K | $65.18 | $0.44M | 2026-07-01 | ↗ |
| JENKINS MARK W. | Chief Financial Officer | SELL | 5K | $66.07 | $0.30M | 2026-07-01 | ↗ |
| JENKINS MARK W. | Chief Financial Officer | SELL | 6K | $67.49 | $0.40M | 2026-07-01 | ↗ |
| JENKINS MARK W. | Chief Financial Officer | SELL | 21K | $68.14 | $1.44M | 2026-07-01 | ↗ |
| JENKINS MARK W. | Chief Financial Officer | SELL | 10K | $69.22 | $0.68M | 2026-07-01 | ↗ |
| JENKINS MARK W. | Chief Financial Officer | SELL | 16K | $70.43 | $1.10M | 2026-07-01 | ↗ |
| HUSTON BENJAMIN E. | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 3K | $65.23 | $0.17M | 2026-07-01 | ↗ |
| HUSTON BENJAMIN E. | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 4K | $66.06 | $0.24M | 2026-07-01 | ↗ |
| HUSTON BENJAMIN E. | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 5K | $67.49 | $0.34M | 2026-07-01 | ↗ |
| HUSTON BENJAMIN E. | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 18K | $68.14 | $1.20M | 2026-07-01 | ↗ |
| HUSTON BENJAMIN E. | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 8K | $69.22 | $0.57M | 2026-07-01 | ↗ |
| HUSTON BENJAMIN E. | Chief Operating Officer | SELL | 13K | $70.44 | $0.91M | 2026-07-01 | ↗ |
| Palmer Stephen R | Vice President of Accounting | SELL | 280 | $65.13 | $0.02M | 2026-07-01 | ↗ |
| Palmer Stephen R | Vice President of Accounting | SELL | 360 | $66.09 | $0.02M | 2026-07-01 | ↗ |
| Palmer Stephen R | Vice President of Accounting | SELL | 1K | $67.81 | $0.09M | 2026-07-01 | ↗ |
| Palmer Stephen R | Vice President of Accounting | SELL | 1K | $68.47 | $0.09M | 2026-07-01 | ↗ |
Beneficial Ownership (13D/13G)
| Filer | Form | Shares | % of Class | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital Research Global Investors | SC 13G/A | 63.4M | 8.9% | 2026-08-12 | ↗ |
| BlackRock, Inc. | SC 13G/A | 44.9M | 6.3% | 2026-07-29 | ↗ |
| Capital Research Global Investors | SC 13G | 10.9M | 7.6% | 2026-05-14 | ↗ |
| FMR LLC | SC 13G | 7.4M | 5.2% | 2026-05-06 | ↗ |
| Ernest C. Garcia II | SC 13D/A | 42.4M | 22.9% | 2026-05-01 | ↗ |
| Vanguard Capital Management | SC 13G | 10.4M | 7.3% | 2026-04-29 | ↗ |
SC 13D = active intent to influence control (10-day filing deadline after crossing 5%). SC 13G = passive accumulation, no intent to influence control.