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CPNG

LONGSHORT

COUPANG INC

Buyers
4
4.50
Sellers
3
3.00
vs SPY
-28.4%
Stock return (since Q-end)
-12.1%
SPY return (since Q-end)
+16.3%
Current price
$16.60

News Summary

Negative

Coupang reported Q1 2026 revenue slightly above expectations at $8.50B (+7.5% YoY), but delivered a massive earnings miss with a $0.15 loss per share versus consensus of -$0.05, driven by a $1.2B customer compensation program and network inefficiencies following a Q4 2025 data breach affecting 33M users. Management guided for only 1-2% adjusted EBITDA margins in Q2 2026 (down 300-400 bps YoY) and expects $950M-$1B in losses from developing offerings in 2026, signaling structural profitability challenges beyond breach-related costs.

Red flags

  • Earnings miss of $0.10 on EPS (250% worse than consensus estimate of -$0.05)
  • Adjusted EBITDA margin collapsed from 4.8% to 0.3% YoY (-450 bps)
  • Net loss of $266M versus $115M profit in Q1 2025 (reversal of $381M)
  • Product Commerce segment EBITDA fell $192M YoY with margins down 302 bps
  • Q2 2026 guidance for 1-2% EBITDA margins indicates continued severe margin compression
  • Developing Offerings expected to lose $950M-$1B in 2026 with no clear path to profitability
  • Data breach affecting 33M users triggered $1.2B compensation commitment and Korean regulatory investigations
  • FY2026 EPS consensus downgraded from $0.154 to $0.137; multiple analyst downgrades (Citi downgrade, Bernstein PT cut 12%)
  • Effective tax rate of 75-80% expected due to non-consolidated losses, creating additional headwinds
  • Competitive pressures cited by analysts likely to further compress margins

Funds Buying (4)

FundManagerShares Held∆ SharesPosition ValueQoQStatus
Tiger GlobalChase Coleman34.6M+8.3M$653.2B+32%Existing
DragoneerMarc Stad27.9M+6.3M$525.9B+29%Existing
D1 CapitalDan Sundheim11.6M+11.6M$219.2BNEW
Point72Steve Cohen7.8M+1.6M$147.2B+26%Existing

Shares Held and Position Value reflect total quarter-end holdings. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter.

Funds Reducing / Exiting (3)

FundManagerShares Held∆ SharesPosition ValueQoQStatus
Duquesne Family OfficeStanley Druckenmiller2.7M-4,106,220$50M-61%Existing
Altimeter CapitalBrad Gerstner0-100%EXITED
Maverick CapitalLee Ainslie0-100%EXITED

Shares Held reflects quarter-end positions for partial reductions. Funds that fully exited show 0 shares held. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter.