MSFT
LONGSHORTINSIDER SELLCONGRESS BUYCONGRESS SELLMICROSOFT CORP
Research: Finviz ↗·Perplexity ↗
🗄 Viewing archived Q1 2026 data — frozen, no longer refreshed.
News Summary
NeutralMicrosoft delivered strong earnings beats across two quarters (Q3 and Q4 FY2026) with Azure growing 43% and AI revenue hitting $37B run rate, offsetting concerns about massive $190B capex spending and escalating regulatory scrutiny. However, free cash flow declined 23% in Q4, and the company faces broadening FTC, Japan JFTC, and EU antitrust investigations targeting cloud licensing, AI bundling, and competitive practices, while the OpenAI partnership was significantly restructured to remove exclusivity and cap Microsoft's upside.
Red flags
- •FTC escalated antitrust investigation targeting cloud licensing, AI bundling, and OpenAI partnership — broadest probe in decades
- •Japan JFTC raided Tokyo offices investigating alleged monopolistic bundling of Azure with dominant software position
- •Free cash flow plummeted 23% to $19.6B in Q4 despite strong earnings; $190B calendar 2026 capex guidance due to memory cost inflation
- •OpenAI partnership restructured: removed exclusivity, capped revenue share, lost exclusive IP license (non-exclusive through 2032), eliminated guaranteed computing commitment
- •Ongoing EU DMA investigation and UK regulatory designation process create sustained legal/compliance risk
- •Xbox leadership transition with Phil Spencer departure (12-year tenure) and aggressive organizational restructuring from 14 to 3-5 management layers signals operational risk
Funds Buying (3)
| Fund | Manager | Shares Held | ∆ Shares | Position Value | % of Fund | QoQ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pershing Square | Bill Ackman | 5.7M | +5.7M | $2.1B | 15.3% | — | NEW |
| TCI Fund Management | Chris Hohn | 2.7M | +2.7M | $1.0B | 2.2% | — | NEW |
| Point72 | Steve Cohen | 351K | +351K | $130M | 0.2% | — | NEW |
Shares Held and Position Value reflect total quarter-end holdings. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter. % of Fund is the position's share of the fund's reported equity portfolio — it drives the size weighting in the conviction score.
Portfolio Context
Where MSFT ranks in each buying fund's book, and the positions immediately around it. What a holding sits next to often says more about the thesis than the position size does.
position #4 of this fund's book
- 1BROOKFIELD CORP$2,416M
- 2AMAZON COM INC$2,385M
- 3UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC$2,155M
- 4MICROSOFT CORP$2,093M
- 5RESTAURANT BRANDS INTL INC$1,674M
- 6META PLATFORMS INC$1,522M
- 7HOWARD HUGHES HOLDINGS INC$1,193M
position #9 of this fund's book
- 6ALPHABET INC$2,540M
- 7FERROVIAL SE$1,328M
- 8CANADIAN NATL RY CO$1,013M
- 9MICROSOFT CORP$1,010M
- 10ALPHABET INC$707M
Values are quarter-end position sizes. Shown only for funds where MSFT ranks inside their 40 largest equity positions — below that, neighbouring names carry no signal. Adjacency is an inference about a fund's reasoning, not a disclosure of it.
Funds Reducing / Exiting (5)
| Fund | Manager | Shares Held | ∆ Shares | Position Value | % of Fund | QoQ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiger Global | Chase Coleman | 2.5M | -2,977,651 | $925M | 8.9% | -54% | Existing |
| Coatue Management | Philippe Laffont | 2.5M | -2,692,073 | $918M | 6.3% | -52% | Existing |
| Appaloosa LP | David Tepper | 90K | -410,000 | $33M | 3.5% | -82% | Existing |
| Lone Pine Capital | Steve Mandel | 0 | −1.2M | — | 4.4% | -100% | EXITED |
| Third Point | Dan Loeb | 0 | −925K | — | 6.1% | -100% | EXITED |
Shares Held reflects quarter-end positions for partial reductions. Funds that fully exited show 0 shares held. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter. % of Fund is the prior-quarter position size — how much of the book was sold down.
Signal History
| Quarter | Direction | Funds | Score | vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | SHORT | 3 | 2.52 | +26.9% |
| Q2 2026 | LONG | 5 | 6.44 | +26.9% |
| Q1 2026 | SHORT | 5 | 7.50 | +14.4% |
| Q1 2026 | LONG | 3 | 4.98 | +14.4% |
Same issuer appearing in consecutive quarters — persistent institutional conviction. Returns are frozen at each archived quarter's last refresh.
Insider Activity
| Name | Title | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Althoff Judson | CEO Microsoft Commercial | SELL | 10K | $487.89 | $4.88M | 2026-08-05 | ↗ |
| Numoto Takeshi | EVP, Chief Marketing Officer | SELL | 5K | $496.48 | $2.39M | 2026-08-04 | ↗ |
| Numoto Takeshi | EVP, Chief Marketing Officer | SELL | 5K | $402.84 | $1.81M | 2026-06-10 | ↗ |
| Numoto Takeshi | EVP, Chief Marketing Officer | SELL | 3K | $412.45 | $1.03M | 2026-06-08 | ↗ |
| Althoff Judson | CEO Microsoft Commercial | SELL | 16K | $460.99 | $7.15M | 2026-06-01 | ↗ |
| Coleman Amy | EVP, Chief Human Resources Off | SELL | 1K | $411.34 | $0.52M | 2026-05-14 | ↗ |
Congressional Trading
| Member | Chamber | State | Type | Amount Range | Transaction Date | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David J. Taylor | house | OH02 | BUY | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-07-24 | 2026-08-06 | ↗ |
| Shelley M Capito | senate | — | SELL | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2026-07-21 | 2026-08-04 | ↗ |
| Matthew Robert Van Epps | house | TN07 | SELL | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-06-16 | 2026-06-17 | ↗ |
| Alan Armstrong | senate | — | BUY | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-03-30 | 2026-07-21 | ↗ |
| Alan Armstrong | senate | — | BUY | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2026-03-27 | 2026-07-21 | ↗ |
| Thomas H Tuberville | senate | — | SELL | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2025-10-07 | 2026-08-05 | ↗ |
| Thomas H Tuberville | senate | — | SELL | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2025-04-15 | 2026-08-05 | ↗ |
| Thomas H Tuberville | senate | — | SELL | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2025-01-10 | 2026-08-05 | ↗ |
| Thomas H Tuberville | senate | — | SELL | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2024-10-29 | 2026-08-05 | ↗ |
| Thomas H Tuberville | senate | — | SELL | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2024-10-29 | 2026-08-05 | ↗ |
Periodic Transaction Reports filed under the STOCK Act. Amounts are disclosed as ranges, not exact dollar figures.