News Summary
NeutralFerguson reported Q1 2026 net sales of $7.5B (+3.6% YoY) with reaffirmed full-year guidance, but stock declined 3.9% due to mixed segment performance and investor focus on weakness in residential markets. Analyst sentiment is fragmented with recent downgrades (Goldman Sachs to Neutral) citing decelerating organic growth and potential guidance risks, though some upgrades occurred in early August, creating volatility ahead of Q2 earnings on August 10.
Red flags
- •Goldman Sachs downgrade to Neutral on July 7, 2026 with $265 price target vs. $228.92 stock price
- •Stock down 10.93% over 3 months as of July 2026
- •Residential market weakness offsetting commercial strength
- •Multiple analysts lowering price targets citing decelerating organic growth and risk of guidance revision
- •Q1 2026 revenue missed expectations by -0.28%
Funds Buying (4)
| Fund | Manager | Shares Held | ∆ Shares | Position Value | % of Fund | QoQ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Capital Partners | Henry Ellenbogen | 3.0M | +788K | $707M | 6.9% | +36% | Existing |
| Baupost Group | Seth Klarman | 1.5M | +8K | $344M | 6.4% | +1% | Existing |
| D1 Capital | Dan Sundheim | 1.3M | +933K | $304M | 0.9% | +267% | Existing |
| Point72 | Steve Cohen | 357K | +357K | $85M | 0.1% | — | NEW |
Shares Held and Position Value reflect total quarter-end holdings. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter. % of Fund is the position's share of the fund's reported equity portfolio — it drives the size weighting in the conviction score.
Portfolio Context
Where FERG ranks in each buying fund's book, and the positions immediately around it. What a holding sits next to often says more about the thesis than the position size does.
position #4 of this fund's book
- 1RBC BEARINGS INC$1,101M
- 2DOORDASH INC$767M
- 3QNITY ELECTRONICS INC$744M
- 4FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC$707M
- 5MERCADOLIBRE INC$524M
- 6API GROUP CORP$514M
- 7XPO INC$498M
position #5 of this fund's book
- 2ELEVANCE HEALTH INC FORMERLY$493M
- 3RESTAURANT BRANDS INTL INC$490M
- 4ALPHABET INC$485M
- 5FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC$344M
- 6GENUINE PARTS CO$332M
- 7UNION PAC CORP$322M
- 8VISA INC$241M
position #18 of this fund's book
- 15FLOWSERVE CORP$368M
- 16APPLOVIN CORP$345M
- 17META PLATFORMS INC$319M
- 18FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC$304M
- 19DISNEY WALT CO$277M
- 20ALPHABET INC$264M
- 21SPOTIFY TECHNOLOGY S A$261M
Values are quarter-end position sizes. Shown only for funds where FERG ranks inside their 40 largest equity positions — below that, neighbouring names carry no signal. Adjacency is an inference about a fund's reasoning, not a disclosure of it.
Signal History
| Quarter | Direction | Funds | Score | vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | LONG | 4 | 4.80 | -1.2% |
| Q1 2026 | LONG | 4 | 4.90 | -14.3% |
Same issuer appearing in consecutive quarters — persistent institutional conviction. Returns are frozen at each archived quarter's last refresh.
Beneficial Ownership (13D/13G)
| Filer | Form | Shares | % of Class | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | SC 13G | 10.5M | 5.4% | 2026-04-29 | ↗ |
SC 13D = active intent to influence control (10-day filing deadline after crossing 5%). SC 13G = passive accumulation, no intent to influence control.