News Summary
NeutralFerguson delivered solid Q2 results with 4.6% revenue growth and raised full-year guidance, while completing a transformative $1.6B FloWorks acquisition to pivot toward industrial distribution. However, Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock citing subdued near-term residential construction weakness, creating analyst divergence on the company's growth trajectory.
Red flags
- •Goldman Sachs downgrade to Neutral with $265 price target citing weak residential construction volumes and lackluster near-term revenue growth
- •Gross margin compression of 20 bps YoY despite revenue growth, suggesting pricing or mix pressure
- •Stock trading ~$233 versus $288-$297 analyst targets implies market skepticism on valuation despite strategic initiatives
Funds Buying (4)
| Fund | Manager | Shares Held | ∆ Shares | Position Value | % of Fund | QoQ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Capital Partners | Henry Ellenbogen | 3.0M | +788K | $707M | 6.9% | +36% | Existing |
| Baupost Group | Seth Klarman | 1.5M | +8K | $344M | 6.4% | +1% | Existing |
| D1 Capital | Dan Sundheim | 1.3M | +933K | $304M | 0.9% | +267% | Existing |
| Point72 | Steve Cohen | 357K | +155K | $85M | 0.1% | +76% | Existing |
Shares Held and Position Value reflect total quarter-end holdings. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter. % of Fund is the position's share of the fund's reported equity portfolio — it drives the size weighting in the conviction score.
Portfolio Context
Where FERG ranks in each buying fund's book, and the positions immediately around it. What a holding sits next to often says more about the thesis than the position size does.
position #4 of this fund's book
- 1RBC BEARINGS INC$1,101M
- 2DOORDASH INC$767M
- 3QNITY ELECTRONICS INC$744M
- 4FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC$707M
- 5MERCADOLIBRE INC$524M
- 6API GROUP CORP$514M
- 7XPO INC$498M
position #5 of this fund's book
- 2ELEVANCE HEALTH INC FORMERLY$493M
- 3RESTAURANT BRANDS INTL INC$490M
- 4ALPHABET INC$485M
- 5FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC$344M
- 6GENUINE PARTS CO$332M
- 7UNION PAC CORP$322M
- 8VISA INC$241M
position #18 of this fund's book
- 15FLOWSERVE CORP$368M
- 16APPLOVIN CORP$345M
- 17META PLATFORMS INC$319M
- 18FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC$304M
- 19DISNEY WALT CO$277M
- 20ALPHABET INC$264M
- 21SPOTIFY TECHNOLOGY S A$261M
Values are quarter-end position sizes. Shown only for funds where FERG ranks inside their 40 largest equity positions — below that, neighbouring names carry no signal. Adjacency is an inference about a fund's reasoning, not a disclosure of it.
Signal History
| Quarter | Direction | Funds | Score | vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | LONG | 4 | 4.53 | -9.7% |
| Q1 2026 | LONG | 4 | 4.90 | -14.3% |
Same issuer appearing in consecutive quarters — persistent institutional conviction. Returns are frozen at each archived quarter's last refresh.
Insider Activity
| Name | Title | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schlicher Jake | Chief Strategy Officer | SELL | 5K | $230.92 | $1.20M | 2026-08-28 | ↗ |
Beneficial Ownership (13D/13G)
| Filer | Form | Shares | % of Class | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | SC 13G | 10.5M | 5.4% | 2026-04-29 | ↗ |
SC 13D = active intent to influence control (10-day filing deadline after crossing 5%). SC 13G = passive accumulation, no intent to influence control.