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UNP
LONGINSIDER SELLUNION PAC CORP
Funds
3
Score
4.50
vs SPY
-8.1%
Stock return (since Q-end)
+8.3%
SPY return (since Q-end)
+16.3%
Current price
$262.64
News Summary
NeutralUnion Pacific delivered Q1 2026 beats on EPS ($2.87 vs. $2.89 est.) with record operating revenue and strong operational metrics (9% freight car velocity increase), while affirming 2026 guidance for mid-single digit EPS growth. However, the Norfolk Southern merger—the dominant narrative—faces significant regulatory uncertainty after the STB accepted the revised application but froze environmental review and demanded substantial additional information by July 27, 2026, creating risk of stranded merger costs ($36M already expensed in Q1) and indefinite closing timelines.
Red flags
- •Norfolk Southern merger regulatory uncertainty: STB acceptance is conditional, not approval; indefinite pause on environmental review introduces material closing risk
- •Merger-related stranded costs risk: $36M ($0.06/share) already expensed in Q1 2026 with no guarantee of deal completion; indefinite timeline increases risk of non-recovery
- •Revenue miss: $6.217B vs. $6.255B estimate (-$38M or ~0.6%), despite EPS beat
- •Share repurchases paused: Capital allocation constrained pending merger clarity
- •Margin headwinds acknowledged: Higher fuel costs and international intermodal weakness noted despite pricing guidance
Funds Buying (3)
| Fund | Manager | Shares Held | ∆ Shares | Position Value | QoQ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point72 | Steve Cohen | 276K | +276K | $67.0B | — | NEW |
| Third Point | Dan Loeb | 100K | +100K | $24.3B | — | NEW |
| Baupost Group | Seth Klarman | 1.5M | +1.5M | $374M | — | NEW |
Shares Held and Position Value reflect total quarter-end holdings. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter.
Insider Activity
| Name | Title | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamann Jennifer L | EVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | SELL | 2K | $274.70 | $0.55M | 2026-04-24 |
| Rocker Kenyatta G | EVP MARKETING & SALES | SELL | 16K | $271.76 | $4.22M | 2026-04-24 |
| Rocker Kenyatta G | EVP MARKETING & SALES | SELL | 12K | $271.76 | $3.22M | 2026-04-24 |
| Gehringer Eric J | EVP OPERATIONS | SELL | 2K | $234.93 | $0.47M | 2026-03-20 |