News Summary
NeutralApplied Materials delivered record Q3 FY2026 results with $9.12B revenue (+25% YoY) and raised Q4 guidance to $10.25B, driven by strong AI-related semiconductor demand across DRAM, foundry-logic, and advanced packaging. However, the stock fell 5.24% post-earnings despite the beat-and-raise, reflecting investor concerns about near-term margin sustainability and 2027 growth deceleration, compounded by a May downgrade citing China exposure risks and in-line market growth expectations.
Red flags
- •$252.5M export control settlement with Commerce Department (February 2026) for illegal exports to China's SMIC
- •Morgan Stanley downgrade to Equalweight (May 2026) citing 2027 growth concerns and persistent China market share risks
- •Stock declined 5.24% despite beat-and-raise earnings, signaling investor skepticism about forward guidance and valuation at elevated levels
Funds Reducing / Exiting (3)
| Fund | Manager | Shares Held | ∆ Shares | Position Value | % of Fund | QoQ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point72 | Steve Cohen | 600K | -1,117,200 | $434M | 3.3% | -65% | Existing |
| Glenview Capital | Larry Robbins | 65K | -132,019 | $47M | 1.8% | -67% | Existing |
| Maverick Capital | Lee Ainslie | 2K | -878,961 | $2M | 3.5% | -100% | Existing |
Shares Held reflects quarter-end positions for partial reductions. Funds that fully exited show 0 shares held. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter. % of Fund is the prior-quarter position size — how much of the book was sold down.
Signal History
| Quarter | Direction | Funds | Score | vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | SHORT | 3 | 4.11 | -33.5% |
| Q1 2026 | LONG | 3 | 3.49 | +28.9% |
Same issuer appearing in consecutive quarters — persistent institutional conviction. Returns are frozen at each archived quarter's last refresh.
Insider Activity
Beneficial Ownership (13D/13G)
| Filer | Form | Shares | % of Class | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | SC 13G | 59.5M | 7.5% | 2026-04-29 | ↗ |
SC 13D = active intent to influence control (10-day filing deadline after crossing 5%). SC 13G = passive accumulation, no intent to influence control.
Congressional Trading
| Member | Chamber | State | Type | Amount Range | Transaction Date | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John J Mr McGuire | house | VA05 | BUY | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-07-15 | 2026-08-10 | ↗ |
| Alan Armstrong | senate | — | BUY | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2026-03-27 | 2026-07-21 | ↗ |
Periodic Transaction Reports filed under the STOCK Act. Amounts are disclosed as ranges, not exact dollar figures.