News Summary
PositiveApplied Materials delivered a strong Q3 FY2026 beat with record $9.12B revenue (up 25% YoY) and EPS of $3.50 versus $3.39 consensus, driving continued analyst support with a $647.3 average 12-month price target (+24% upside). However, the company faces a material $600M revenue headwind in FY2026 from U.S. export restrictions to China, with China revenue share declining from 35% to 28% year-over-year, representing a significant structural business challenge that partially offsets near-term momentum.
Red flags
- •$600M revenue hit in FY2026 from China export controls — a material headwind affecting ~7% of revenue
- •China revenue concentration risk: 28% of Q3 revenue exposed to potential further geopolitical restrictions
- •Regulatory/geopolitical uncertainty around U.S.-China trade policy creates forward guidance volatility
Funds Reducing / Exiting (3)
| Fund | Manager | Shares Held | ∆ Shares | Position Value | % of Fund | QoQ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point72 | Steve Cohen | 600K | -1,117,200 | $434M | 1.0% | -65% | Existing |
| Glenview Capital | Larry Robbins | 65K | -132,019 | $47M | 1.8% | -67% | Existing |
| Maverick Capital | Lee Ainslie | 2K | -878,961 | $2M | 3.5% | -100% | Existing |
Shares Held reflects quarter-end positions for partial reductions. Funds that fully exited show 0 shares held. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter. % of Fund is the prior-quarter position size — how much of the book was sold down.
Signal History
| Quarter | Direction | Funds | Score | vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | SHORT | 3 | 3.45 | -35.6% |
| Q1 2026 | LONG | 3 | 3.49 | +28.9% |
Same issuer appearing in consecutive quarters — persistent institutional conviction. Returns are frozen at each archived quarter's last refresh.
Insider Activity
| Name | Title | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanders Adam | Corp. Controller & CAO | SELL | 725 | $544.56 | $0.39M | 2026-10-02 | ↗ |
| BRUNER JUDY | — | SELL | 1K | $465.00 | $0.47M | 2026-09-08 | ↗ |
| Hill Brice | SVP, CFO | SELL | 8K | $479.25 | $3.59M | 2026-08-25 | ↗ |
| DICKERSON GARY E | President and CEO | SELL | 20K | $735.22 | $14.68M | 2026-06-30 | ↗ |
| DICKERSON GARY E | President and CEO | SELL | 30 | $736.05 | $0.02M | 2026-06-30 | ↗ |
| DICKERSON GARY E | President and CEO | SELL | 50K | $700.21 | $35.24M | 2026-06-29 | ↗ |
| DICKERSON GARY E | President and CEO | SELL | 8K | $701.33 | $5.60M | 2026-06-29 | ↗ |
Beneficial Ownership (13D/13G)
| Filer | Form | Shares | % of Class | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | SC 13G | 59.5M | 7.5% | 2026-04-29 | ↗ |
SC 13D = active intent to influence control (10-day filing deadline after crossing 5%). SC 13G = passive accumulation, no intent to influence control.
Congressional Trading
| Member | Chamber | State | Type | Amount Range | Transaction Date | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gottheimer | house | NJ05 | SELL | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-09-15 | 2026-10-07 | ↗ |
| Josh Gottheimer | house | NJ05 | BUY | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-08-06 | 2026-09-14 | ↗ |
| John J Mr McGuire | house | VA05 | BUY | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-07-15 | 2026-08-10 | ↗ |
| Jared Moskowitz | house | FL23 | BUY | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-07-13 | 2026-08-27 | ↗ |
| Alan Armstrong | senate | — | BUY | $15,001 - $50,000 | 2026-03-27 | 2026-07-21 | ↗ |
Periodic Transaction Reports filed under the STOCK Act. Amounts are disclosed as ranges, not exact dollar figures.