News Summary
PositiveMadison Air delivered strong Q2 2026 earnings with 21% revenue growth, 129% net income growth, and raised full-year guidance, while simultaneously announcing a transformative $5.4 billion acquisition of German fan-maker ebm-papst. The company successfully de-risked the acquisition financing through a $2.25 billion private placement, though multiple analysts subsequently reduced price targets by $4–$8 per share citing acquisition integration and valuation concerns.
Red flags
- •Stock fell on ebm-papst acquisition announcement despite being characterized as 'strategically compelling,' signaling market concern about deal valuation or execution risk
- •Three major analysts (RBC, Baird, Stifel) reduced price targets by $4–$8 per share in late August/early September despite maintaining Buy ratings, suggesting lingering valuation questions post-acquisition
- •Short interest increased 8.76% recently, indicating emerging bearish positioning among some investors
- •Leverage will materially increase post-acquisition; current 2.8x net leverage does not reflect the $5.4B ebm-papst debt/consideration
Funds Buying (4)
| Fund | Manager | Shares Held | ∆ Shares | Position Value | % of Fund | QoQ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Capital Partners | Henry Ellenbogen | 10.2M | +10.2M | $398M | 3.9% | — | NEW |
| D1 Capital | Dan Sundheim | 1.3M | +1.3M | $49M | 0.1% | — | NEW |
| Soros Fund Management | Soros Family Office | 625K | +625K | $24M | 0.3% | — | NEW |
| Point72 | Steve Cohen | 150K | +150K | $6M | <0.1% | — | NEW |
Shares Held and Position Value reflect total quarter-end holdings. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter. % of Fund is the position's share of the fund's reported equity portfolio — it drives the size weighting in the conviction score.
Portfolio Context
Where MAIR ranks in each buying fund's book, and the positions immediately around it. What a holding sits next to often says more about the thesis than the position size does.
position #9 of this fund's book
- 6API GROUP CORP$514M
- 7XPO INC$498M
- 8CARVANA CO$442M
- 9MADISON AIR SOLUTIONS CORP$398M
- 10TWILIO INC$381M
- 11AFFIRM HLDGS INC$361M
- 12FABRINET$339M
Values are quarter-end position sizes. Shown only for funds where MAIR ranks inside their 40 largest equity positions — below that, neighbouring names carry no signal. Adjacency is an inference about a fund's reasoning, not a disclosure of it.
Insider Activity
Fund 13D/13G Filings (1)
Tracked funds' beneficial-ownership filings on this stock — disclosed within days of a position change, fresher than the quarterly 13F. Since Filing compares the stock to SPY from the filing date (shown for filings within the last 90 days).
| Fund | Form | ∆ Shares | % of Class | Since Filing | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Capital Partners | SC 13G | NEW | 5.2% | -1.2% vs SPY +4.6% abs | 2026-04-23 | ↗ |
Beneficial Ownership (13D/13G)
| Filer | Form | Shares | % of Class | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Gies | SC 13G | 336.7M | 67.1% | 2026-08-10 | ↗ |
| FMR LLC | SC 13G | 14.1M | 8.0% | 2026-08-06 | ↗ |
| Ernesto Bertarelli | SC 13G | 44.8M | 25.3% | 2026-05-15 | ↗ |
| Durable Capital Partners LP | SC 13G | 9.3M | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 | ↗ |
SC 13D = active intent to influence control (10-day filing deadline after crossing 5%). SC 13G = passive accumulation, no intent to influence control.