News Summary
NegativeRocket Companies delivered strong Q2 2026 earnings with record mortgage market share and $766M adjusted EBITDA, but issued weak Q3 guidance ($2.5–$2.7B revenue, down sequentially) citing a smaller mortgage market and rising rates to 6.8%—triggering a 10% post-earnings sell-off and multiple analyst downgrades. An FTC trial against the Redfin-Zillow partnership adds regulatory overhang into August, compounding near-term headwinds in a challenging housing environment.
Red flags
- •Sequential revenue guidance cut (Q3 expected below Q2 despite record market share) signals demand deterioration
- •Mortgage rates rising to 6.8%, highest in over a year, pressuring affordability and industry demand
- •Multiple analyst downgrades post-earnings (BofA, Stephens, Benchmark, KBW, Oppenheimer, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan)
- •BTIG downgrade to Neutral with no price target; flagged 'limited visibility' on earnings normalization through 2027–2028
- •FTC trial vs. Redfin-Zillow partnership in August creates near-term legal/regulatory headline risk
- •Housing market backdrop deteriorating: second consecutive weekly drop in pending home sales
Funds Buying (3)
| Fund | Manager | Shares Held | ∆ Shares | Position Value | % of Fund | QoQ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ValueAct Holdings | Mason Morfit | 41.7M | +13.5M | $656M | 11.6% | +48% | Existing |
| Point72 | Steve Cohen | 4.7M | +4.7M | $73M | 0.1% | — | NEW |
| Duquesne Family Office | Stanley Druckenmiller | 652K | +652K | $10M | 0.2% | — | NEW |
Shares Held and Position Value reflect total quarter-end holdings. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter. % of Fund is the position's share of the fund's reported equity portfolio — it drives the size weighting in the conviction score.
Portfolio Context
Where RKT ranks in each buying fund's book, and the positions immediately around it. What a holding sits next to often says more about the thesis than the position size does.
position #3 of this fund's book
- 1VISA INC$795M
- 2AMAZON COM INC$701M
- 3ROCKET COS INC$656M
- 4BLACKROCK INC$559M
- 5META PLATFORMS INC$516M
- 6SALESFORCE INC$469M
Values are quarter-end position sizes. Shown only for funds where RKT ranks inside their 40 largest equity positions — below that, neighbouring names carry no signal. Adjacency is an inference about a fund's reasoning, not a disclosure of it.
Signal History
| Quarter | Direction | Funds | Score | vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | LONG | 3 | 3.17 | -12.8% |
| Q1 2026 | SHORT | 3 | 2.46 | -16.1% |
Same issuer appearing in consecutive quarters — persistent institutional conviction. Returns are frozen at each archived quarter's last refresh.
Fund 13D/13G Filings (5)
Tracked funds' beneficial-ownership filings on this stock — disclosed within days of a position change, fresher than the quarterly 13F. Since Filing compares the stock to SPY from the filing date (shown for filings within the last 90 days).
| Fund | Form | ∆ Shares | % of Class | Since Filing | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ValueAct Holdings | SC 13D/A | +16.1M | 4.3% | — | 2025-10-03 | ↗ |
| ValueAct Holdings | SC 13D/A | +2.7M | 9.9% | — | 2025-08-04 | ↗ |
| ValueAct Holdings | SC 13D/A | +3.0M | 8.9% | — | 2025-07-11 | ↗ |
| ValueAct Holdings | SC 13D/A | +4.6M | 7.7% | — | 2025-07-03 | ↗ |
| ValueAct Holdings | SC 13D | NEW | 9.9% | — | 2025-05-15 | ↗ |
Beneficial Ownership (13D/13G)
| Filer | Form | Shares | % of Class | Filed | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. | SC 13G | 55.3M | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 | ↗ |
| Capital World Investors | SC 13G | 69.4M | 7.1% | 2026-08-12 | ↗ |
| FMR LLC | SC 13G | 52.7M | 5.4% | 2026-08-06 | ↗ |
| Vanguard Capital Management | SC 13G | 48.8M | 5.0% | 2026-04-30 | ↗ |
SC 13D = active intent to influence control (10-day filing deadline after crossing 5%). SC 13G = passive accumulation, no intent to influence control.