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STUB
LONGINSIDER SELLSTUBHUB HLDGS INC
Funds
4
Score
6.00
vs SPY
+41.7%
Stock return (since Q-end)
+58.0%
SPY return (since Q-end)
+16.3%
Current price
$9.86
News Summary
NeutralStubHub delivered a strong Q1 2026 earnings beat with 12% revenue growth, return to profitability ($48M net income), and exceptional cash generation ($290.6M FCF), but faces a backdrop of significantly reduced 2026 guidance (60% lower EBITDA than October 2025 projections), regulatory pressure from an FTC settlement over deceptive pricing, and analyst skepticism with price targets averaging $13.44 against a 68% decline from IPO.
Red flags
- •2026 EBITDA guidance reset to $400-420M, 60% below October 2025 projections, signaling severe prior over-guidance and credibility issues
- •FTC settlement requiring $10M refund and mandatory permanent changes to pricing disclosure, part of broader regulatory crackdown on ticketing ecosystem
- •Multiple analyst downgrades to Neutral/Equal Weight in Q1 2026 (JPMorgan, Wedbush, Morgan Stanley) citing limited conviction and visibility
- •Stock down 68% from $23.50 IPO price; worst major IPO in 16+ months
- •Lock-up expiration on March 6, 2026 with insider selling activity (CFO sold 28K shares at $7.66)
- •Regulatory overhang: ~47% market share exposes STUB to systemic risk of structural changes to fee-driven model as FTC targets entire ticketing ecosystem
Funds Buying (4)
| Fund | Manager | Shares Held | ∆ Shares | Position Value | QoQ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greenlight Capital | David Einhorn | 4.2M | +4.2M | $26.4B | — | NEW |
| Maverick Capital | Lee Ainslie | 931K | +931K | $5.8B | — | NEW |
| Soros Fund Management | Soros Family Office | 125K | +125K | $780M | — | NEW |
| Duquesne Family Office | Stanley Druckenmiller | 1.4M | +1.4M | $9M | — | NEW |
Shares Held and Position Value reflect total quarter-end holdings. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter.
Insider Activity
| Name | Title | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Streams Mark | See Remarks | SELL | 233K | $9.04 | $2.10M | 2026-05-14 |
| Fitzgerald Scott Michael | Principal Accounting Officer | SELL | 2K | $7.57 | $0.01M | 2026-05-11 |
| Fitzgerald Scott Michael | Principal Accounting Officer | SELL | 2K | $6.50 | $0.01M | 2026-04-13 |