PM

SHORT

PHILIP MORRIS INTL INC

Funds

Score

3.00

vs SPY

-9.0%

Stock return (since Q-end)

+7.3%

SPY return (since Q-end)

+16.3%

Current price

$177.38

News Summary

Negative

PM delivered a Q1 2026 EPS beat ($1.96 vs. $1.89) with strong IQOS growth, but U.S. ZYN volumes declined sharply (-23.5%), prompting management to lower full-year EPS guidance despite maintaining organic growth targets. Regulatory headwinds (FDA nicotine pouch program slowdown) and analyst downgrades from major banks reflect growing concerns about near-term execution and valuation.

Red flags

•ZYN U.S. shipment volumes fell 23.5% in Q1 2026, a material headwind to growth momentum
•FY 2026 reported EPS guidance lowered following Q1 results, signaling management confidence erosion
•FDA nicotine pouch fast-track scheme has slowed, creating regulatory uncertainty for ZYN MRTP and ZYN ULTRA approvals
•Multiple analyst downgrades in April 2026 (Morgan Stanley, UBS, Stifel, Jefferies downgraded to Hold in January) reflecting valuation and execution concerns
•Revenue slightly missed consensus ($10.15B vs. ~$10.19B estimate) despite EPS beat
•Smoke-free segment now 43% of revenue but growth trajectory clouded by U.S. channel normalization and regulatory delays

Funds Reducing / Exiting (3)

Fund	Manager	Shares Held	∆ Shares	Position Value	QoQ	Status
Maverick Capital	Lee Ainslie	567K	-1,609,458	$93.8B	-74%	Existing
Lone Pine Capital	Steve Mandel	0	—	—	-100%	EXITED
Duquesne Family Office	Stanley Druckenmiller	0	—	—	-100%	EXITED

Shares Held reflects quarter-end positions for partial reductions. Funds that fully exited show 0 shares held. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter.