GFL

LONG

GFL ENVIRONMENTAL INC

Funds

Score

4.50

vs SPY

-35.9%

Stock return (since Q-end)

-19.6%

SPY return (since Q-end)

+16.3%

Current price

$33.54

News Summary

Positive

GFL delivered a strong Q1 2026 with revenue beat (+5.4%), record EBITDA margins (+180 bps to 29.1%), and raised full-year guidance by ~$90M. The landmark $6.4B SECURE acquisition (announced April 13) significantly expands the platform with synergy potential of $25–75M and is expected to improve consolidated margins to 31.6%, though regulatory approval and financing (80% stock/20% cash) introduce execution risk and shareholder dilution.

Red flags

•Free cash flow turned negative at $(24.3)M in Q1 2026 vs. +$13.7M in Q1 2025, driven by working capital timing and acquisition-related costs
•Diesel fuel costs surged ~40% in March; only ~$1M of $10M cost headwind recovered via surcharges in Q1, creating near-term margin pressure despite management confidence in full recovery by end-Q2
•Net leverage rose to 3.6x in Q1 2026 from 3.4x in Q4 2025 and above the mid-3x target range; FX headwinds (CAD/USD ~1.393) pose additional refinancing and translation risks
•SECURE acquisition closing timeline uncertain; regulatory review could extend into Q4 2026, creating multi-month integration and financing uncertainty; 80% stock consideration dilutes existing shareholders

Funds Buying (3)

Fund	Manager	Shares Held	∆ Shares	Position Value	QoQ	Status
Maverick Capital	Lee Ainslie	3.8M	+3.8M	$160.6B	—	NEW
Point72	Steve Cohen	742K	+742K	$31.0B	—	NEW
Soros Fund Management	Soros Family Office	530K	+530K	$22.1B	—	NEW

Shares Held and Position Value reflect total quarter-end holdings. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter.