CMG

SHORT

CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC

Funds

Score

3.00

vs SPY

-16.8%

Stock return (since Q-end)

-0.5%

SPY return (since Q-end)

+16.3%

Current price

$31.86

News Summary

Neutral

Chipotle returned to modest comparable sales growth (+0.5% in Q1 2026) and beat adjusted EPS estimates, signaling recovery from prior-year challenges, but operating margins compressed significantly (12.9% vs. 16.7% prior year) due to wage inflation and commodity cost pressures. Management hired experienced marketing and digital leadership while guiding for flat full-year comps and 350-370 new restaurant openings, though analyst sentiment is mixed with multiple price target cuts despite a few upgrades.

Red flags

•Operating margin decline of 380 bps year-over-year (16.7% to 12.9%) driven by wage inflation and commodity costs
•Diluted EPS declined 17.9% despite revenue growth, signaling profitability pressure
•Full-year 2026 guidance calls for 'about flat' comparable sales growth—conservative outlook with limited upside visibility
•25 analysts revised earnings estimates downward following Q1; multiple price target cuts from Guggenheim, Piper Sandler, and Barclays
•Restaurant-level adjusted operating margin fell 250 bps (26.2% to 23.7%), indicating persistent unit-level economics stress

Funds Reducing / Exiting (3)

Fund	Manager	∆ Shares	Position Value	QoQ	Status
Point72	Steve Cohen	—	—	-100%	EXITED
Duquesne Family Office	Stanley Druckenmiller	—	—	-100%	EXITED
Third Point	Dan Loeb	—	—	-100%	EXITED

Shares Held reflects quarter-end positions for partial reductions. Funds that fully exited show 0 shares held. ∆ Shares is the change from the prior quarter.